Forex Daily Analysis 2012-03-16

Improving economic data supported the US stock markets that closed another green trading-day yesterday. Continuing jobless claims were 351K, lower than analysts' consensus of 354K claims. Philly manufacturing index, which indicates the activity of the manufacturing sector, was higher than expectations as well. Today are published the core CPI M/M & consumer sentiment.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar reached the target we set for the break-down of the support at 1.06, which was the 200 SMA, around 1.04. As we estimated, the break-down of this level caused significant declines and the support appeared around the 200 SMA, which is an indicator that many investors use. The support occurred close to the 50% Fibonacci level, which means that a bullish reversal might start from this point. Stochastic oscillator levels are showing oversold situation, and this supports the possibility for a bullish reversal by the Aussie that might retest the break-down level at 1.06.

AUD/CAD
Most of the major currencies got stronger against the USD yesterday, but the CAD did not make a significant change against the American dollar. The pair USD/CAD is consolidating around 0.99 and it is not clear whether the bears or the bulls have the upper hand now.
The fact that the CAD is stamping versus the USD, helps the AUD to rise against it, after few weeks of heavy sales in the pair AUD/CAD. The pair blocked by the 200 SMA and if this support lasts, the AUD might correct up to 1.055-1.06 and even higher.

EUR/GBP
Both EUR & GBP are traded around strong supports against the USD. The EUR gets support at 1.30, might continue to 1.315-1.32, whereas the GBP has support at 1.565, and might rise to 1.58.
The pair has been moving through a narrow channel and we analyze it each time the pair touches one of the channel's boundaries. Two weeks ago, when the pair traded a little bit higher that 0.83, we brought up the trade idea of trying to take it up to 0.84 and the trade worked exactly as we planned. The pair is close to 0.83 again and if the current pattern remains, the pair will rise towards 0.84. However, a powerful movement of the GBP might cause a break-down of the support and take it down to 0.82.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

FOREX Daily Analysis 2012-03-08

As we estimated, the US stock market made the bullish correction to the declines from the beginning of the week, and those who expected to see a crashing of the stock got the exact opposite. Wall Street can easily slide to the bearish momentum again but the most important thing here to understand is that the general trend is still bullish, which means that those who missed the rally might buy stocks after the slightest correction.
EUR/USD
The next two days are full with important economic data as today is published the European interest rate, which expected to remain at 1.0% and the investors will look forward to the ECB press conference.
The risings in Wall Street helped the Euro that found a support at 1.31, and if the investors like what they hear from the ECB president, the currency might jump to the resistance at 1.325. However, a break-down of yesterday's low could take the pair under 1.30.

EUR/GBP
The pound failed in breaking through the 200 SMA on Tuesday and the sharp declines in Wall Street that day, pulled the pound down to 1.57. The British currency corrected yesterday and the MPC rate statement today will influence its direction today.
Both EUR & GBP are moving in the same trend versus the USD and therefore the pair EUR/GBP has been stamping in the last couple of months. The pair is approaching the resistance at 0.84, which it broke last month but fell under it few days after the break-up. According to this pattern, the pair supposed to rise to 0.84 and try to break it through again. However, if the pound gets extremely stronger and the pair breaks down the support at 0.83, it might slide towards 0.82.

USD/CAD
The pair reached the target we set at the psychological number 1.0 and the strengthening of the USD has stopped due to the bullish correction of the stocks. The interest rate is published today in Canada, 30 minutes after the ECB press conference begins and like the other interest rates that are published today the Canadian interest is expected to remain unchanged. If the USD continues strengthening against the CAD and overcomes the resistance at 1.0 then the price might reach 1.015. However, if the bearish reversal occurs, the price might fall back to 0.98 again.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

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Forex Daily Analysis 2012-03-05

Wall Street closed another green trading week as NASDAQ kept setting new highs, S&P 500 crossed above the important level of 1370 points, though eventually it closed under this resistance. The rising came on the background of improving economic data as GDP showed an annual growth of 3% and continuing jobless claims fell to new low.

This week was extremely volatile in the commodities market as oil prices touched the level of $110 after rumors regarding attack on one of Saudi Arabia important oil fields, but the largest oil producer denied the rumors and the oil closed around $106 on Friday. The precious metals were also on the center after Bernanke said that the price of $1800 for an ounce of gold reflects a bubble and caused heavy sales of the metal that shed $80 that day. The silver also influenced by the events and fell nearly 10% during Wednesday.

EUR/USD

Europe got some encouraging events during the last two-weeks and after the Greece crisis seemed to be calmed for a while, the ECB gave the European banks more than 500 billion Euros in order to ease the credit problem that the banks are having.  The European bid rate published on Thursday and it expected to remain on the current levels. However, as usual, the investors will wait for the ECB press conference to get indication about the economic situation. One of the most important data is published on Friday, which is the employment status in the US - Non Farm payroll change & unemployment rate.

On the technical aspect, in spite the fact the US stock market rose, the EUR loose power against the USD after few weeks of a bullish rally. Stochastic levels are indicating for an overbuying situation, which means that the EUR might correct down to 1.30. However, strong rally in the stocks might help the EUR to resume strengthening.

GBP/USD

The pound made an impressive bullish session after the USD failed in breaking-down the support at 1.565 two weeks ago. The pair made the triple-bottom on the support and reached the target we set for the bullish movement at 1.60. The expected resistance appeared around that levels and heavy selling took the pair down under 1.58. If the USD continues strengthening, the pair might fall to 1.565 again. However, the pair reached Fibonacci levels in which a bullish reversal might occur.

The bank of England will announce the interest rate on Thursday, 45 minutes before the ECB. The bank rate is expected to remain unchanged and the investors will concentrate on the MPC rate statement.  

USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar has been strengthening against the USD for several months and last week the pair broke down the important support at 0.99. However, as it usually happens after break-down or break-ups of extreme levels, the pair did not continue falling and it closed around the break-down level on Friday. A better than expected GDP data published in Canada that day but the general strengthening of the USD prevent the CAD from gaining more power. If the USD continues rising, the pair might reach the 200 SMA and the psychological number 1.0. However, if the bearish reversal occurs around the current level, the CAD might try to slide under 0.98.

The Bank of Canada will publish the interest rate on Thursday, half-hour after the ECB, and the interest rate is expected to remain at 1.0%.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

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Daily Forex Analysis 2012-03-02

The US stock markets are about to close another green week as NASDAQ led the indices with 0.75% up. The risings came on the background of mixed data as unemployment claims were lower than the forecasts but the ISM manufacturing PMI disappointed, as well as the personal spending & income.
GBP/USD
The continuation of the risings in Wall Street supports the major currencies versus the USD, including the pound that just last week traded around 1.56, and it is now approaching 1.60. The pound created the triple-bottom on that support and though it looked like it was about to break-down, the British currency managed to rise and overcame the resistance of the 200 SMA, which is now supporting it. A break-up of the resistance at 1.60 might take the price to the highest pick since October 2011 at 1.6165.

AUD/USD
The Aussie is trying to break-through the resistance at 1.08, in which it has failed to break few times in the recent months. In fact, many up-tails extend from the candlesticks from the recent period, which means that there are many sellers around this level and the next break-up might be another false one. However, the pair made a correction down to 1.06 last week and this might give the Aussie enough power to make a powerful break-up. If it succeeds, the pair might jump to the next height at 1.105.

Precious Metals
The precious metals had a great momentum since the beginning of the year. They rose sharply since the beginning of the year, after rough times in the second half of 2011. Bernanke's speech on Wednesday disrupt the investors plan as he mentioned that the Gold's prices were too high and caused sharp declines in both Gold $ Silver prices. The expected up-correction occurred yesterday and the main question in this point is whether the prices break Wednesday low and continue falling, or rise above yesterday's high and try to get back to their recent picks.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

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