Daily Analysis 2012-08-13

EUR/USD

Many traders expected the Euro to rise on the background of the bullish momentum in the stock markets. However, investors decided to take advantage of the recent rising in order to sell the Euro. The currency reached a strong support at 1.24 and despite the break up of the US indices, the Euro failed in breaking through. Stochastic levels are still high, which means that the currency might continue falling towards 1.217-1.22. Nevertheless, the tails that extend from Friday's candlestick indicates for a possible bullish reversal.  The Euro gets support at 1.2240 and if it crosses above Friday's high, it might show another attempt of breaking through 1.24.

GBP/USD

As we estimated on the previous weekly analysis, the pound continued to be traded between the support at 1.545 and the resistance at 1.57. The currency narrowed the range last week, as a strong support appeared around 1.5550. The pound close on the resistance at 1.57 as it looks ready to break through. If it succeeds, the pound might jump upwards to 1.59. However, the 200 SMA waits just above 1.57 and it might be a tough obstacle for the pound. In case of a failure, the currency might slide to the channel's support at 1.545. Investors will look forwards to Wednesday, as the MPC meeting minutes will be revealed.

USD/JPY

This pair keeps stamping, as it could not break through neither the resistance at 78.85 or the support at 78.0.  The main reason for this unclear trend is the contradicting forces of each currency, in which the USD is traded against the general trend. Trading the pair when it has unclear direction is extremely dangerous. Therefore, one should wait until the pair breaks up or breaks down. According to the bearish trend that appears on the daily chart, the Yen is likely to break down. If it does, we might see it around 77.0.

Forex Daily Analysis 2012-03-16

Improving economic data supported the US stock markets that closed another green trading-day yesterday. Continuing jobless claims were 351K, lower than analysts' consensus of 354K claims. Philly manufacturing index, which indicates the activity of the manufacturing sector, was higher than expectations as well. Today are published the core CPI M/M & consumer sentiment.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar reached the target we set for the break-down of the support at 1.06, which was the 200 SMA, around 1.04. As we estimated, the break-down of this level caused significant declines and the support appeared around the 200 SMA, which is an indicator that many investors use. The support occurred close to the 50% Fibonacci level, which means that a bullish reversal might start from this point. Stochastic oscillator levels are showing oversold situation, and this supports the possibility for a bullish reversal by the Aussie that might retest the break-down level at 1.06.

AUD/CAD
Most of the major currencies got stronger against the USD yesterday, but the CAD did not make a significant change against the American dollar. The pair USD/CAD is consolidating around 0.99 and it is not clear whether the bears or the bulls have the upper hand now.
The fact that the CAD is stamping versus the USD, helps the AUD to rise against it, after few weeks of heavy sales in the pair AUD/CAD. The pair blocked by the 200 SMA and if this support lasts, the AUD might correct up to 1.055-1.06 and even higher.

EUR/GBP
Both EUR & GBP are traded around strong supports against the USD. The EUR gets support at 1.30, might continue to 1.315-1.32, whereas the GBP has support at 1.565, and might rise to 1.58.
The pair has been moving through a narrow channel and we analyze it each time the pair touches one of the channel's boundaries. Two weeks ago, when the pair traded a little bit higher that 0.83, we brought up the trade idea of trying to take it up to 0.84 and the trade worked exactly as we planned. The pair is close to 0.83 again and if the current pattern remains, the pair will rise towards 0.84. However, a powerful movement of the GBP might cause a break-down of the support and take it down to 0.82.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Daily Forex Analysis 2012-03-02

The US stock markets are about to close another green week as NASDAQ led the indices with 0.75% up. The risings came on the background of mixed data as unemployment claims were lower than the forecasts but the ISM manufacturing PMI disappointed, as well as the personal spending & income.
GBP/USD
The continuation of the risings in Wall Street supports the major currencies versus the USD, including the pound that just last week traded around 1.56, and it is now approaching 1.60. The pound created the triple-bottom on that support and though it looked like it was about to break-down, the British currency managed to rise and overcame the resistance of the 200 SMA, which is now supporting it. A break-up of the resistance at 1.60 might take the price to the highest pick since October 2011 at 1.6165.

AUD/USD
The Aussie is trying to break-through the resistance at 1.08, in which it has failed to break few times in the recent months. In fact, many up-tails extend from the candlesticks from the recent period, which means that there are many sellers around this level and the next break-up might be another false one. However, the pair made a correction down to 1.06 last week and this might give the Aussie enough power to make a powerful break-up. If it succeeds, the pair might jump to the next height at 1.105.

Precious Metals
The precious metals had a great momentum since the beginning of the year. They rose sharply since the beginning of the year, after rough times in the second half of 2011. Bernanke's speech on Wednesday disrupt the investors plan as he mentioned that the Gold's prices were too high and caused sharp declines in both Gold $ Silver prices. The expected up-correction occurred yesterday and the main question in this point is whether the prices break Wednesday low and continue falling, or rise above yesterday's high and try to get back to their recent picks.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Daily Forex Analysis 2012-02-29

The intensity of the risings in Wall Street is reducing every day as the S&P 500 broke through the resistance at 1370 points but not as powerful as expected. However, the consumer confidence data helped the stocks to remain on the positive territory, as it reached a new high since last year.
 Today's main events are the prelim GDP q/q and Bernanke Testifies.
EUR/USD
The ECB is about to transfer 500 billion Euros to the European banks in order to ease the credit problems and help the Eurozone economy. This action spreads optimism among the EUR investors and the currency is consolidating under 1.35 versus the USD. The pair created the "Bull-Flag" pattern on the daily chart and a break-up of the resistance might lift the price up to the 200 SMA around 1.37. However, this pattern usually comes with high levels of stochastic oscillator, which means that the pair is overbought and could current from the current level. Therefore, the risk of a false-break is higher, unless the EUR corrects down before the break-up occurs. Obviously, there is a possibility that the resistance is going to be to strong and the USD might strengthen against the EUR. In this case, we might see the price slide down to 1.33 or below.

EUR/CAD
The CAD still traded in a narrow channel between 0.992 and 1.005 against the USD and the tails of the recent candlesticks indicate that there are strong sellers around the upper boundary of the channel. Because the CAD is not making any significant changes, the EUR, which is in a bullish momentum these days, is getting higher against the CAD. In fact, the pair has reached the target we set to the break-up at 1.325 last week (1.34) and it is now facing the resistance at 1.35. The pair corrected down to 1.335 but made a green candlestick yesterday, and a break-up of yesterday's high might signal for a bullish reversal and a second attempt for breaking through 1.35.

GBP/USD
The GBP reached the 200 SMA at 1.59 versus the USD and got the expected resistance there. If it manages to overcome this obstacle, the buyers might push the pound above 1.60. However, the trend of the pair is mainly depended on the momentum of the USD, which is influenced by the stock markets. Therefore, if the USD resumes strengthening against the major currencies, the pound might fall down to 1.57 again.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Forex Daily Analysis 2012-02-27

The US stock markets made the unbelievable and completed another green week. Indices rose 0.3% as the S&P 500 is touching the pick at 1370 points and although many analysts estimate that the correction will come soon, there is a good probability that we will see continuation of the rally. Many hedge funds are waiting for a correction of 5%-10% but the indices have traded around the current highs for several days without correcting and this is a sign for another break-up. If the S&P 500 breaks through 1370 points, the hedge funds managers will have no choice but to join the market and this might push the stocks even higher. The main elements that could threat this rally are obviously the European debt problem and the rally of the oil price which is about to cross above 110$.
EUR/USD
The continuation of the strengthening of the stocks weakened the USD against most of the major currencies. Before the previous weeks started, the EUR looked like it was about to correct down, but eventually it opened the week with a gap-up and completed the "cup & handle" pattern under the resistance at 1.33. The EUR successfully broke this pattern and reached the target we set at 1.35 within just two trading days. The next significant resistance is close to the 200 SMA at 1.37, but do not eliminate the option for a bearish correction that will retest 1.33.

GBP/USD
The pound looked extremely weak against the USD on the first days of the previous trading week, but a strong finish took it to the week's height. There was a strong support to the pair at 1.565, which we estimated that a strong break-down of this support would cause sharp declines. However, the support was strong enough and the triple-bottom pattern signaled for the incoming bullish session. The pair broke-through the resistance of the downtrend line and reached the 200 SMA, as a strong break-up of this moving average might take the GBP up to 1.60.

USD/CHF
The CHF broke-down the bearish pattern of the "Head & Shoulders" and might start a significant strengthening movement against the USD. The pair was traded around the support at 0.91 for several weeks and it looked like that each break-down was actually a false-break, but last week the break-down was real and the CHF is already under 0.90 versus the USD. The target for the current session is the 200 SMA at 0.87-0.88.
The main concern of the CHF buyers is an aggressive intervention by the SNB in case the CHF gets too stronger according to the central bank's point of view. This threat definitely real since the SNB has announced before that t would not hesitate to interfere if it needed.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

FOREX Daily Analysis 2012-02-23

The US stock markets closed a negative trading day in spite of the approval of additional 130 billion Euros for Greece, as part of the bailout plan. However, other geo-political threats are affecting the markets, as the commodities such as oil and metals keep rising.

GBP/USD

Since the pound failed in breaking the 200 SMA earlier this month, it keeps loosing points against the USD. The pair fell to the support at 1.565 and rose from this level but made a lower-highs pattern that indicates of a bearish momentum in the pair. The price reached this support yesterday and a strong break-down might take the GBP down to the level of 1.55. If the stock markets continue the bearish momentum, it will help the USD and weaken the other major currencies, including the GBP. However, the support might pull back the buyers and lift the GBP higher.

GBP/CHF

The CHF is not making any significant movement against the USD these days, and it traded around 0.91, as many short position players are waiting for a strong break-up there. However, the SNB might interfere in case the CHF gains power again and this should be a warning for those who are waiting for the strengthening of the Swiss Franc.

The pair GBP/CHF broke an important support on the daily chart, at 1.435 and many sellers that enter the market during this break-down caused sharp declines. The pair is approaching the 4-months low as the current support is at 1.427, and strong break-up there might slide to 1.415.

EUR/CAD

The EUR did not lose points against the USD yesterday, unlike the other major currencies that weakened against the American dollar. The "Cup & Handle" pattern, which we analyzed in the daily chart, is still valid, so stay alert for a break-up.

The USD has corrected against the CAD in the recent three trading days, and therefore the EUR/CAD is rising. The pair has moved between the support at 1.30 and the resistance at 1.325 for several weeks and it is now trying to break-through the resistance. If it succeeds, the pair might jump to 1.34. However, if the current pattern remain, the pair should turn over from this point and slide downwards to 1.30-1.31.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Daily Analysis 2012-02-22

The US stock markets opened the trading week on the red territory as the S&P 500 once again touched the 3-years high, around 1370 points. The stocks started the day strong but started losing altitude after couple of hours. The pattern of strong opening and weak closing has repeating itself for several days, and each time the investors believe that the weak closing would start the expected correction, but the day after starts with a gap-up, so the stocks might continue rising even today in spite of the bearish session yesterday.

EUR/USD

The EUR reached the target we set on the Weekly analysis and completed the "cup & handle" pattern under the resistance at 1.33. In spite the uncertainty in the Greece situation, the European currency keeps rising, though a negative momentum in the US stock markets might support the USD and weaken the Euro. If the pair breaks-through the resistance, the price might jump to 1.35. Nevertheless, the resistance at 1.33 might be too strong now and the pair might correct downwards to 1.31 if it slides under yesterday's low.

GOLD

The gold made the classic bullish reversal pattern and the trade-idea that we brought up on Friday works exactly according to the plan. The idea was to but the gold in case it would break through $1740 and take the profit at the pick of $1765. Many amateurs are waiting for the gold to break-through the "inverted head & shoulders" pattern at $1765, but those who implemented the trade-idea could take profit when the amateurs plan to enter the market. A successful break-up of this pattern might take the gold's price above $1800, though it is much more dangerous to buy the precious metal in such extreme levels.

An interesting point about the "head & shoulders" pattern is that some technical analysis experts claim that the potential of a break-up of the pattern is the distance between the "head" and the "neck.  In this case, it would be the distance between $1600 and $1765, which means that according to this approach the gold might jump above $1900, but this is obviously does not necessary correct.

Silver

The silver follows the gold in the strong momentum of the precious metal. On Friday's analysis, we mentioned that the level of $34 was an important resistance that the silver had to break in order to resume risings. Yesterday, the silver strongly broke this level and it is approaching the first target we set at the 200 SMA, just below $35. Additional break-up of the 200 SMA might take the silver to the 5-months high at $35.65.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Forex Daily Analysis 2012-02-14

The US stock markets opened the trading week with risings of 0.7% on the background of the agreements in Greece, which sent the European stock markets 1% up as well. However, those who expected a sharp reaction by the Euro got disappointed since the European currency weakened against the USD.
Today's important news: GBP- CPI; EUR-German ZEW Economic Sentiment; USD-Core Retail Sales m/m.
NZD/USD
The strong rally of the NZD against the USD, which started on December, has slowed down in the last two weeks. The pair broke through the resistance at 0.825 but could not continue rising and got another resistance at 0.84. The break-up level has become support and the NZD slid to this support on Friday and retested it. The buyers should up at this level and raised the kiwi above 0.83 yesterday and it might try to break-through 0.84 on its way to 0.86. However, a break-down of the support might cause a sharper correction downwards to 40%-50% Fibonacci levels, around 0.815.

EUR/NZD
The weakness of the EUR against the USD helped the NZD to resume strengthening against it. The general trend that appeared in the daily/chart is unquestionably bearish, and it was just a matter of time before the NZD would make the reversal, that came after the pair hit the resistance of the 20 EMA. Yesterday's low was set at the level of 1.578 and a break-down of this level might pull the price down to 1.56 and below. Another signal regarding the bearish reversal of the pair is the fact that stochastic levels are getting higher, which means that the up-correction is over or close to be over.

NZD/CHF
The pair made about 400 pips since it broke up the resistance at 0.73, which we analyzed on the beginning of the year. The pair is currently dealing with the resistance at 0.77 and a strong break-up there might lift the NZD to the level of 0.80 versus the CHF. However, the NZD is in overbought situation against most of the major currencies, including the CHF, and therefore the pair might correct down to the area of 0.74-0.75.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Daily Analysis - Forex Currency Trading News 2012-02-03

The US stock market made another positive day yesterday as the investors were encouraged by the continuing claim data that showed a decline of 12K, whereas analysts expected a decline of 6K comparing to the previous week. However, today is main event as the Non-Farm payrolls change data & the unemployment rate will published one hour before the opening bell in Wall Street. This data is of the most important indicators of the US economy.
EUR/USD
The Euro is facing the resistance at 1.32 against the USD, and the fact that it is overbought reflects in that it did not rise yesterday, in spite the risings of the stock markets. This indicates that the EUR is close to the point in which it will make an aggressive correction, but the NFP data might push it up in spite all of that. A break-up of the support at 1.325 might lift the Euro up to 1.345-1.35, whereas a break-down of the support of the 20 EMA at 1.30 might cause the declines that the market expects.

EUR/JPY
The Yen keeps strengthening against the USD and it reached the strong support at 76.0. A break-down there might take the price down to the historical low at 75.5, but the Yen showed yesterday signals that the current session might over and the USD could correct.
The strengthening of the Yen is well shown against the EUR as well, but the EUR has corrected against the Yen since the middle of January. There is a possible bullish reversal on the daily chart, though the movement of the EUR depends on the NFP data today. Therefore, a break-up of 100.5-101 will be a strong signal for the EUR and it might jump to 102 and a break-down of the 3-days low at 99.0 might pull the price down to 97.0 again.

EUR/CAD
The CAD has been strengthening against the EUR for several months, but the European currency started corrected against the CAD on the previous months, just as it did against the other major currencies. A bullish reversal appears on here as well, as the pair is supported by the 38% Fibonacci level, at 1.31. A break-up of yesterday's high might take it up to the recent pick at 1.325, but a break-down of the support might push the price downwards to 1.30.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Today's Profit :)

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Daily Analysis - Forex Currency Trading News 2012-02-02

The US stock market soared yesterday in spite of mix economic data. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data showed that the US economy created 170K new jobs in the previous month, comparing to 292K in the month before. Analysts expectations were a growth of 189K new jobs and this disappointing number might indicate for the official release on Friday. The ISM manufacturing PMI was also under the predictions, which is a negative signal for the activity of the manufacturing sector. Today's main news is the unemployment change data and Bernanke's testifies.
USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar joined the global trend of strengthening against the USD in the recent weeks. The pair broke a strong support of the triangle pattern in the daily chart at 1.01 and reached the strong support of the 20 SMA, which is the area of the psychological number 1.0. Traders like round numbers because they are easy to calculate and therefore many automatic orders are put around this level.  The current support should be strong enough for an up-correction, but as long as the stocks keep rising, the USD will probably lose points against the major currencies, including the CAD. A strong break-down of the 200 SMA might take the pair down to the next support at 0.975.

USD/JPY
The Yen broke the important support of 76.5 against the USD and it is moving downwards to the historical low at 75.5. However, those who are counting on another strengthening session of the Yen has to be aware to the possibility that the BOJ might interfere around such a low levels, as it did three months ago. The sophisticated players are aware of this scenario, which might makes them to cover their short positions and support the USD.

CAD/JPY
The fact that both CAD & JPY made bullish session against the USD is making it hard to determine the pair's trend. In fact, the pair has been moving in a channel between 74.75 and 76.5 for several months and last week it made a strong break-up of the upper boundary but got back to the channel when the Yen resumed strengthening.  However, there is a bullish reversal on the daily chart, and the CAD is trying to break-through the resistance at 76.5 again. If it succeeds, the buyers might lift the price to the next resistance at 78.0, but a break-down of yesterday's low might take it down to the lower boundary of the channel at 74.5.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

FOREX Daily Analysis - Currency Trading News 2012-02-01

Wall Street is starting to show more and more signals that a correction is about to come. Yesterday, the major indices open the trading day almost 1% up, but started falling after the release of the disappointing consumer confidence data. In total, January was the best month in the US stock markets since 1997, as they rose 10% during the month.
EUR/USD
The declines in the stock markets supported the USD against the major currencies, and the euro slid against the American dollar yesterday. The Greek problem has not been solved yet and this affects the EUR, which started correcting down since it reached the pick at 1.323 on Friday. The USD's correction will be determined by the employment data flow, which starts today with the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and end with the official NFP on Friday.
On the technical aspect, the EUR is obviously overbought and the correction down might erase 30%-50% of the recent rally and therefore the Euro might retest 1.30 or even lower.

EUR/GBP
The GBP completed an amazing bullish session against the USD, which started on the middle of the month. This movement started as a "short-squeeze" that turned into a strong rally, in which the pound gained almost 500 pips against the USD. Now it is facing a resistance at 1.57 and might correct down from the current levels.
Both Euro and GBP rose sharply against the USD since the beginning of the month, though the EUR was relatively stronger and therefore the pair EUR/GBP rose as well. However, the general trend of this pair is bearish, so the GBP was likely to get stronger again against the EUR, as it did in the recent couple of days. The GBP broke the support of the channel and if it succeeds in completing the break-down, the price might fall to 0.82.

NZD/CHF
The NZD dollar does not stop strengthening against most of the currencies. Yesterday it looked like that the USD was about to correct against the NZD but the Kiwi made another wide bullish candlestick. On the other hand, the USD found a support against the CHF, and that give the NZD the ability to rise even more against the CHF. The current resistance is at 0.76 and a break-up there will be another step to the heights at 0.78.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Forex Daily Analysis - Currency Trading News 2012-01-31

The US stock market opened the trading week on a mixed territory but with strong signals for a positive continuation. The indices opened the trading day more than 0.5% but started rising after the first hour. Eventually, NASDAQ was the only major index to close in the positive territory.
AUD/USD
Since the Aussie broke through the resistance of the 200 SMA at 1.04, the Australian dollar gained almost 300 pips before it reached the resistance of the round number 1.07. The higher-lows pattern that occurred under the 200 SMA suggested that there was a strong pressure of buyers under these, and it was a great trade for those who implemented this trade idea. Now the price is close to the resistance in the daily chart at 1.075 and a strong break-out there will trigger many automatic orders that might launch the Aussie to the historical heights at 1.108. However, the pair is obviously overbought so it might correct down and retest the 200 SMA.

NZD/USD
The Kiwi is following its Australian neighbor as it also made an impressive break-up of the 200 SMA at 0.80. However, the bullish session started much sooner when the NZD broke-through the resistance at 0.78. Strong buyers entered the market during that break-up and lifted the pair up to its current levels at 0.82. The pair is now facing the resistance at 0.825, but an entry here, when the pair is overbought, is extremely dangerous. Opening a position in such extreme point is an opportunity for the pros to take advantage of the amateurs, and therefore it would be wisely to wait for correction down before opening a long position. Such a correction might occur if the price crosses below yesterday's bottom, and can reach Fibonacci 50% levels around the 200 SMA at 0.80.

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AUD/NZD
As we see many times, when two currencies are getting stronger against the USD, the cross of them does not show a clear trend.  The weekly chart shows that the level of 1.285 is a pivot point in an accurate triangle. The simultaneous pressure of both buyers and sellers creates this pattern, and stochastic high levels show that the pair might continue down from the current levels, though the direction might still change due to the strength of these two powerful currencies.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Daily Analysis - Forex Currency Trading News 2012-01-25

The low volatility in the US stock markets continued yesterday and will probably remain narrow until the FOMC rate statement on the second part of today's trading session. The interest level is expected to be unchanged, but the investors will hope to find out about new plans for creating new jobs.

The interest rate in New Zealand is published today as well.

EUR/USD

Greece is close to get the final agreement on the haircut of the private sector's debts, and with the positive atmosphere in the stock markets in both US & Europe, the Euro is continuing its recovering that started last week, when the pair broke-out the downtrend channel. The "short-squeeze" is strong as we estimated and the Euro easily crossed the first target at 1.30 on its way to 1.31. A break-up of this resistance, which might occur during the interest announcement, can lift the price up to 1.33-1.335 in the next few days. On the other hand, indicators show that the pair is overbought and therefore a bearish reversal might occur around 1.305-1.31.

USD/JPY

The USD made a strong break-out against the Japanese Yen yesterday and almost reached the target we set for this potential break-up, at 78.0. We analyzed the pair several time during the recent weeks and we mentioned the level of 77.0 as an important level that if the USD breaks it, many automatic orders will be triggered. This estimation turned to be a fact and the pair acted according to the analysis. However, it is important to understand that in all of the recent analysis we mentioned the level of 76.5 as a possible break-down level. This is important to clarify because the technical trader should not analyze one direction only, but he must be prepared for both scenarios.

CAD/JPY

The CAD broke the triangle pattern it had on the daily chart with the USD, but the correction of the USD yesterday pulled the price back to the triangle's zone, so the break-down cannot be declared as successful yet. However, the weakening of the Yen against the USD reflects in most of the other major currencies, including the CAD. The pair is now facing the resistance at 77.0, in which it failed to break several time in the past five months. Therefore, there is a good probability that it will fail again, but if it does manage to break-out, the pair might reach the 200 SMA at 79.0.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Daily Market Overview: USD/JPY 2012-01-24

Daily maximum: 77.85

Daily minimum: 76.96

After touching the daily forecast mean at 76.99, USD/JPY moved upwards after the Richmond Manufacturing Index rose more than expected.

Daily Resistance: 77.11; 77.20; 77.33.
Daily Support: 76.89; 76.76; 76.67.
Daily Bias: Neutral.

Daily Market Overview: USD/CHF 2012-01-24

Daily maximum: 0.9311

Daily minimum: 0.9235

The Swiss Franc continued appreciating versus the American dollar as the economic outlook in Europe improves, causing the daily target at 0.9293.

Daily Resistance: 0.9351; 0.9429; 0.9479.
Daily Support: 0.9223; 0.9173; 0.9095.
Daily Bias: Bearish.

Daily Analysis - Forex Currency Trading News 2012-01-24

The US stock markets opened the first day of the trading-week with strong risings but the expected realizations pulled the stocks down. Many investors and analysts are looking for an aggressive correction, which might start if the main indices slide under yesterday's low. However, this is the results season, which means that surprising reports can bit any technical analysis that says that the markets are overbought, and we might see the stocks keep risings.
USD/CAD
The pair has changed its direction several times in the past 3 months. Unlike the other currencies, the CAD stood up against the strong momentum of the USD and it managed to correct after each rally of the USD. The simultaneous pressure of both buyers and sellers created an accurate triangle pattern in the daily chart, which looks like the pair has decided to break it. The break-down of the lower edge of the triangle is not completed yet, and the USD might take it back into the triangle's zone. However, the pair did broke the important support of 1.01 and a break-down of the psychological number 1.0 might pull the price down to the 200 SMA at 0.99-0.995.

EUR/GBP
The EUR/USD successfully broke the channel and reached the first target we set at 1.30. The next resistance for the EUR would be at 1.31. The "short-squeeze" in the GBP/USD continues powerfully and the pair crossed the target we set for this correction, at 1.55.
The strengthening of both EUR and GBP caused the pair EUR/GBP to be more volatile than the average, but it looks like the Euro has more to correct against the GBP. The current resistance is at 0.837 and a strong break-up might take the price up to 0.85. Pay attention to stochastic high levels, which indicate that the pair is overbought and might resume declining again from the current levels.

GBP/CHF
We analyzed the Swiss Franc yesterday and estimated that if it breaks-down the support at 0.93 against the USD, it might start a strengthening session against the USD. The CHF did break that support and might get stronger against the other major currencies. The GBP continues its correction against the USD as well, so it could be harder for the CHF to rise against the pound. The daily chart of the GBP/CHF looks similar to the USD/CHF so this might indicate the CHF will overcome the strengthening of the GBP if it rises against the USD.
The pair is now dealing with the support of the former break-out level at 1.445 and it might slide to 1.42 if it successfully breaks-down this support.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Daily Analysis - Forex Currency Trading News 2012-01-19

The results season is accelerating and pushing Wall Street to new highs, as Goldman Sachs (GS) bit analysts expectations and rose 7% yesterday. The S&P 500 made another attempt of breaking-through the level of 1300 points, which was better than the previous attempt on Tuesday, and if today's reports of Google and Intel bit Wall Street, the S&P might continue the bullish momentum towards 1330 points.
EUR/USD
The US stock markets and the USD usually have a negative correlation but it has been a positive correlation in the recent weeks. Yesterday, the risings of the stocks weakened the American dollar against most of the major currencies, and this might signal that the correlation is negative again.
The Euro reached the lower boundary of the channel, which we have been analyzing for several weeks, and made the expected correction towards the upper boundary that is now resisting the pair at 1.285. The Greek haircut of the private sector also supported the Euro and if a short-squeeze begins here, the price might jump to 1.305-1.31.

GOLD
Two weeks ago, we analyzed the precious metals and we estimated that they would continue the bullish momentum from the end of 2011. The gold traded around the 200 SMA then and we estimated that the level of $1600 was an important support for the metal. The gold slid to this level, which was as strong as we expected, and a bullish reversal occurred there. The metal eventually broke through the 200 SMA, which became a support, and it is now dealing with the resistance of the level of $1667, which was a break-down level two months ago.
If the resistance is too strong and the gold fails in breaking it through, the metal can slide to the level of $1600 again. However, a break-up of the current resistance might lift the gold's price up to $1730.

Silver
On the beginning of December, we suggested a short-trade in case of a break-down of the "head & shoulders" pattern at $31. The break-down was as strong as we estimated and those who implemented this trade idea enjoyed declines of 15% in the silver's price. The metal set a bottom at $26.13 on the last week of last years, and gained almost everything it lost during the break-down, so the current resistance is at $31. Many sellers will probably wait there, but if the silver manages to overcome this resistance, it might jump to $33. Otherwise, it might turn over and slide to $29 or even below.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Daily Analysis - Forex Currency Trading News 2012-01-18

The US stock market opened the trading week with a bullish momentum, in spite the weakness of the financial sector, which caused by Citigroup's reports that missed analysts' expectations. The stock fell 8% by the end of the day.

The S&P 500 rose tried to break-through the resistance of the round number 1300 points but turned over after a false-break. However, if today's reports of Goldman Sachs bit Wall Street estimations, the S&P might try to break-through 1300 points again.

GBP/USD

The risings in Wall Street helped the GBP to rise until the middle of the day but eventually it resumed falling against the USD on the second half of the day. Today is published the Claimant Count Change data, which will give indication regarding the employment situation in Britain.

Last Friday, we demonstrated how dangerous it was to try opening a short-position under the support of 1.527. The pair made a false-break and started correcting up almost 150 pips, which probably stressed many armatures that had to close their losing positions.  The recent candlesticks have up-tails, which indicated that a bearish reversal might occur around these levels. Therefore, a break-down of 1.53 might be a second attempt of breaking down the daily low, on the way to 1.50.

EUR/NZD

The pair EUR/USD reached the lower boundary of the channel that we analyzed on the weekly analysis and it made the expected correction there. However, the NZD keeps strengthening against the USD and therefore the pair EUR/NZD remains in the downtrend.

The pair is obviously oversold and it might make an aggressive short-squeeze, if it breaks-through 1.60. However, the Kiwi is in a middle of a powerful momentum against most of the currencies, so the pair might break the support of 1.59 and fall to 1.57 or even below that.

NZD/JPY

This pair's daily chart reminds the daily chart of the NZD/USD. The reason for this is the fact that the JPY is stamping against the USD and the NZD is strengthening against it. The outcome is a very similar daily chart of the NZD/JPY and the NZD/USD, which will continue to remain similar until the Yen makes any significant movement.

The pair broker through the bullish pattern of the "cup & handle" at 61.0 and it is heading towards the 200 SMA at 63.0. The 20 EMA crossed above the 50 EMA, which is a strong bullish signal for the NZD against the JPY.

Today is published the important data of the CPI in New Zealand, which might affect the NZD's pairs during the day.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Forex Daily Analysis - Forex Currency Trading News 2012-01-13

  Wall Street continued the positive momentum yesterday, in spite the disappointing continuing jobless claims data that showed a growth of 7% in the unemployment.

The ECB kept the European interest rate at 1.0% and the Euro rose after the announcement, thought the ECB press conference did not put a new light regarding the debt problem of the PIIGS countries.

USD/JPY

The USD has been strengthening against some of the major currencies since the beginning of the year, but the Japanese Yen was not impressed by that.  Last week, when the pair traded around the support of 76.5, we estimated that it would not break-down and would correct up. The USD did correct against the Yen as we estimated, but now the price is close to the support again.

The bearish pattern of the "head & shoulders" appears on the daily chart and a break-down of the support might take the Yen to the historical level of 75.5. However, even if the JPY eventually breaks-down, the central bank of the Japan might interfere in case the price slides under 76.0 (or even sooner), so any trade-idea on this direction has to consider this option.

AUD/USD

As we estimated, the simultaneous pressure of both buyers and sellers on the pair caused the price to change its direction several times in a short period. The level of 1.02 is still the pivot level of the triangle pattern, and the price goes back to this level each time it touches one of the triangle's edges. Yesterday, the Aussie tried to break-out the upper hedge but left the tail above and slid under the edge right after the break-out. This does not mean that the attempt for rising has failed and if the Aussie rises above yesterday's high and above the 200 SMA at 1.04-1.0410, it might signal that the buyers won the battle against the sellers and the price might continue to 1.07.

NZD/USD

Unlike the Aussie, the Kiwi has already broken-out the triangle pattern on the daily chart. Before the break-up occurred, we mentioned few elements that suggested that the NZD was about to break-up. The most powerful signal that we analyzed was the fact that the pair started the "higher-lows" pattern, which is an important technical sign when you look for a bullish trend. The pair is approaching the target we set at the 200 SMA and it might correct down from this level. However, a break-up of the 200 SMA might launch the price to the next resistance at 0.825.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above