GBP/USD Weekly Outlook 9-13 September 2013

GBP/USD এর আউটলুকে গত সপ্তাহে তেমন কোন বড় ধরনের পরিবর্তন দেখা যায়নি। তাই এ সপ্তাহে প্রথম দিকে GU এর মুভমেন্ট neutral থাকতে পারে। সাপোর্ট 1.5422 এর ব্রেক হলে মার্কেট বেয়ারিশ মমেন্টাম শুরু হবার সিগন্যাল দিতে পারে এবং একই সাথে 1.4813 থেকে শুরু হওয়া আপ ট্রেন্ড 1.5715 এ টপ তৈরি করে শেষ হবার সিগন্যাল দিতে পারে। ডাউন সাইডে টার্গেট হতে পারে 1.5101 এবং 1.4813. বেয়ারিশ মুভমেন্ট কে গুরুত্ব দেয়ার আরেকটি কারন হচ্ছে Strong Resistance @ 1.5751 প্রাইস। এখান থেকে pull back এর আগেও একবার হয়েছে তাই এই পয়েন্ট Reversal এর জন্য খুব গুরুত্বপূর্ণ। কিন্তু key Resistance  1.5751 এর ব্রেক হলে মার্কেট পরবর্তী Resistance 1.6380 Focus করবে।

Fibo Exp. থেকে দেখা যাচ্ছে 100% Projection near 1.5755 প্রাইসে রেজিস্টান্স রয়েছে। এর ব্রেক হলে টার্গেট হবে  Fibo 161.8% projection.

GBP/USD ডেইলি আউটলুক ২১ অগাস্ট ২০১৩

GBP/USD মমেন্টাম আপ আছে তবে কিছুটা দুর্বল হয়ে পরেছে এই মুহূর্তে। পেয়ারটি Fibo Exp. H4 চার্ট থেকে দেখা যায় ১০০% projection রয়েছে 1.5722 প্রাইসে

তাই সেখান থেকে Strong Pull Back আশা করছি। তবে খুব কাছের সাপোর্ট রয়েছে 1.5422 price এ , এর ব্রেক bearish movement এর সিগন্যাল দিবে। তবে 1.5722 to 1.5751 level Resistance এর ক্লিয়ার ব্রেক পরবর্তী Resistance 1.6380 কে টেস্ট করাতে পারে। 

GBP/USD ডেইলি আউটলুক ১৯ অগাস্ট ২০১৩

GBP/USD এর আপওয়ার্ড মুভমেন্ট 1.5102 থেকে শুরু করে 1.5656 প্রাইসে টপ তৈরি করেছে। পরবর্তীতে পেয়ারটি আবার আপ হতে পারে তবে এর পূর্বে মার্কেটে

কিছুটা Consolidation সেখা যেতে পারে। Consolidation শেষে টার্গেট হতে পারে 1.5750 area। ডাউন সাইডে সাপোর্ট রয়েছে 1.5420 এবং 1.5350 প্রাইসে। সাপোর্ট এর ক্লিয়ার ব্রেক হলে আশা করি মার্কেটে বেয়ারিশ মুভমেন্ট দেখতে পাওয়া যাবে, তাছাড়া অভার অল মুভমেন্ট বুলিশ।  

GBP/USD ডেইলি আউটলুক ৩ এপ্রিল ২০১৩

1.5092 মাইনর সাপোর্টের Break Suggest করে 1.4830 থেকে শুরু হওয়া ডাউন ট্রেন্ড Consolidation বা Rebound শেষ। এখন টার্গেট হতে পারে Previous Low 1.4830 এর Retest. এবং Low এর ব্রেক 1.6380 থেকে শুরু হওয়া ডাউন ট্রেন্ডকে Resume করবে এবং পেয়ারটিকে 1,4229 প্রাইসে নিয়ে যেতে পারে।  অপর দিকে 1.5259 এর ব্রেক নতুন ট্রেন্ড এর সিগন্যাল দিতে পারে। তাছাড়াও ফিবো Retracement 38.2% আছে 1.5422 প্রাইসে ( 1.6380 থেকে 1.4830). তাই সবমিলিয়ে আশা করছি GBP/USD মুভমেন্ট বেয়ারিশ হতে পারে

GBP/USD ডেইলি আউটলুক ২৮ মার্চ ২০১৩

GBP/USD 4H চার্টে এখন প্রাইস চ্যানেলে সাপোর্টের মুখোমুখি। সেখান থেকে প্রাইস Rebound করে উপরে উঠতে পারে। আরেকটা বিষয় খেয়াল রাখতে হবে Upside এ প্রাইস যদি 1.5185 এর ক্লিয়ার ব্রেক করে তাহলে পরবর্তী টার্গেট হতে পারে 1.5350 zone।  অপর দিকে সাপোর্ট এর ডাউন সাইড এ ক্লিয়ার ব্রেক প্রাইসকে আবার  1.4831 কে টেস্ট করাতে পারে।  সবমিলিয়ে আজকে GBP/USD  বলা যায় একটা কঠিন সময় এর মধ্যে দিয়ে যাচ্ছে তাই বাই সেল অর্ডার ওপেন এর পূর্বে ট্রেডারদেরকে প্রাইস মুভমেন্ট ভালো করে খেয়াল করার অনুরোধ জানাচ্ছি। 

Daily Analysis 2012-08-13

EUR/USD

Many traders expected the Euro to rise on the background of the bullish momentum in the stock markets. However, investors decided to take advantage of the recent rising in order to sell the Euro. The currency reached a strong support at 1.24 and despite the break up of the US indices, the Euro failed in breaking through. Stochastic levels are still high, which means that the currency might continue falling towards 1.217-1.22. Nevertheless, the tails that extend from Friday's candlestick indicates for a possible bullish reversal.  The Euro gets support at 1.2240 and if it crosses above Friday's high, it might show another attempt of breaking through 1.24.

GBP/USD

As we estimated on the previous weekly analysis, the pound continued to be traded between the support at 1.545 and the resistance at 1.57. The currency narrowed the range last week, as a strong support appeared around 1.5550. The pound close on the resistance at 1.57 as it looks ready to break through. If it succeeds, the pound might jump upwards to 1.59. However, the 200 SMA waits just above 1.57 and it might be a tough obstacle for the pound. In case of a failure, the currency might slide to the channel's support at 1.545. Investors will look forwards to Wednesday, as the MPC meeting minutes will be revealed.

USD/JPY

This pair keeps stamping, as it could not break through neither the resistance at 78.85 or the support at 78.0.  The main reason for this unclear trend is the contradicting forces of each currency, in which the USD is traded against the general trend. Trading the pair when it has unclear direction is extremely dangerous. Therefore, one should wait until the pair breaks up or breaks down. According to the bearish trend that appears on the daily chart, the Yen is likely to break down. If it does, we might see it around 77.0.

Forex Daily Analysis 2012-07-05

The holiday in the US influenced the currencies market as the low liquidity blocked some the major currencies' momentum against the USD that took advantage of the situation in order to correct some of the recent declines. Most of the traders in the US extend their vacation to the weekend and will resume to the markets just next week, and this might influence the markets as well. However, the following trading days are full with important indicators that might shakeout the markets.

EUR/USD

Currencies are changing momentums almost every several hours these days, mainly because of the low volatility. Therefore, promising patterns might lead to false-breaks and cause quick losses. This means that the technical analysis could be less accurate than usual and therefore necessary adjustments have to be made. The Euro reached a new weekly low yesterday, as the descending triangle pattern was built above the support at 1.24. A break-down of this pattern will probably take the Euro down to the annual low at 1.2287. The reason for this bearish momentum could be the markets' expectations for a lower interest rate announcement today by the European central bank. However, the ECB press conference might have a positive influence on the Euro if the investors get positive signals from the central bank. Either way, the market tend to be extremely volatile during such significant announcements and trading during the moments of the declaration includes high risk.

GBP/USD

The pound fell under Monday's low and triggered many selling orders that pulled it 100 pips down. The currency got the resistance of the downtrend line and created a triangle pattern in the daily chart. This triangle is neither descending nor ascending, which means that there is a strong conflict between the buyers and the sellers. In such cases, the technical trader has to get prepared for both scenarios of break-up and break-down. According to the current momentum, it looks like the pound is going to slide to the support of the uptrend line at 1.5520, as a strong break-down of this support might pull it down to 1.54. Nevertheless, the pound might continue moving between the triangle's edges until it breaks on of them. The official bank rate is published today in Britain, 45 minutes before the European, as a positive reaction by the investors might launch the pound towards the 200 SMA at 1.5750.

OIL

The price of the crude oil reached a psychological of $80 support last week and started correcting up since then. The sanctions against Iran's oil contributed to the speculations regarding the oil's prices and the traders took advantage of that. The oil rose 10% since last week and the weekly charts shows that the oil has risen over 20% on the last couple of times that it reached this support. This means that the current bullish correction might lift it up towards $100. However, if the oil makes the bearish reversal, successful break-down this time might pull it down to the level of $70.

FOREX Daily Analysis 2012-01-12

The investors are losing their faith in the major European currencies, since they buy the USD in spite the fact that the stock markets keep rising. The correlation between the USD and the stock is usually negative, but these days the USD is strengthening no matter what the stocks do.
Wall Street closed on the mixed territory yesterday but the main indices did not make a significant change, and it seems that the investors are waiting for the large companies to reveal their results for the 4^th quarter of 2011.
EUR/USD
The Euro keeps loosing points against the USD day after day. Every time the Euro shows signs for a possible correction, a red candlestick arrives and cut out the Euro's plan. The sellers has an absolute control of the trading in this pair and it looks like that Merkel & Sarkozy's plans for saving the Eurozone, do not impress the investors that continue selling the Euro.
The pair has been moving in an accurate channel since the current bearish session began on November 2011. The price approached the lower boundary of the channel and might correct upwards, but additional break-down might take the Euro down to 1.23.
Today is published the European bid rate, which expected to remain unchanged (1%). The ECB press conference will be on the center and Trichet's outlook regarding 2012 will influence on the traders. Be careful of trading during the announcement.

GBP/USD
Yesterday we mentioned that the pair has been moving in a lower-high pattern, but it showed signaled that it was about to correct up. The correction did not occur and the GBP slid aggressively to the support of 1.53, which was the target we set in case the pair would not make the up-correction.
The round number of 1.53 might be a strong support for the GBP, but if it continues the bearish momentum, it can easily slide under it and fall to 1.50. The MPC rate statement later today, will determine the direction of the GBP for the rest of the day.

GBP/JPY
The Yen is showing an impressive strength against the USD these days and the pair USD/JPY has been resting in the recent three-days, though things looks positive for the Japanese currency.
The strength of the JPY is emphasized against the weakness of the GBP and therefore the pair GBP/JPY is crashing. In fact, we suggested a trade-idea for a short position when the price was 121.5-122, which gained over 350 pips. Now, the price is moving towards 117.0 and a break-down there might slide to 115.0

Risk Disclosure
Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.
You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

FOREX Daily Analysis 2012-01-11

Another green day was closed in Wall Street as S&P 500 is close to break-through the resistance of 1300 points. Dow-Jones has already broke-through an important resistance in the daily chart at 12,300 points and it is heading to 12,800.

GBP/USD

The pound has been moving in a bearish pattern in the recent six weeks. Each time it touches the resistance of the downtrend, it falls downwards to 1.535-1.54. In addition, each high that it sets when it reaches the resistance is lower than the previous one. The outcome is the bearish pattern of "lower-highs" which attracts many short positions players to the market.

However, there might be a signal that indicate that the GBP is about to make an aggressive correction. This signal is the fact that last week's low is higher than the previous one, and that is the first signal you look for when you try to estimate whether a bearish session is over. Stochastic low levels are also supporting the estimation that the GBP is about to correct, and if it does, it might jump to the resistance of the downtrend again to 1.565.

Nevertheless, the US stock market might correct down any day, and since the USD has a negative correlation with the stocks, it might get stronger against the GBP and the pair might slide under 1.53.

USD/CAD

The pair is about to reach the point in which a winner will be determined in the battle between the buyers and the sellers. The current pattern is an accurate triangle, which its pivot level is around 1.02. Eventually, the pressure from below of the buyers will meet the pressure from above of the sellers around the pivot level, and the price will either break-up or break-down one of the triangle's edges. A break-up might launch the price to 1.045-1.05, and a break-down might slide it to 1.0.

CAD/JPY

The JPY is showing signs that it is about to break-down the support of 76.5 against the USD, and this might cause a stronger bullish movement of the Yen towards 75.5. Because of the fact that both CAD and JPY are strengthening against the USD these days, the pair CAD/JPY has been stamping since the beginning of December between 75.0 and 76.5. The pair is traded around the lower boundary of this channel and if it keeps the current pattern, it might rise to 76.5. A break-down here will indicate that the JPY is strengthening and the price might fall to 73.0-73.5.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Daily Analysis 2012-01-09

The US stock market opened the year on the green territory as the major indices rose 1.7% during the week. The S&P 500 is approaching the resistance at 1300 points and NASDAQ is heading towards 2400 points. A break-up of these important resistances might help the indices to rise up to the 52-weeks highs.

The most important and encouraging event during last week was the Non-farm payroll change data that showed an increase of 200K jobs in the US economy, whereas the expectations were an increase of 152K new jobs. In addition, the unemployment rate was down by 0.2% to 8.5%. This surprising news regarding the American unemployment status launched the stock markets and supported the US dollar against most of the currencies.

EUR/USD

Unlike the US, the news from Europe is still bad. Hungary's rank was downgraded to junk due to the policy of its prime minister. Other countries are still struggling with their huge debts and the EUR keeps loosing points.  All of these political crises are pulling the Euro down and the investors are running away from this currency, but the ECB press conference on Thursday will try to change that. The minimum bid rate is expected to remain unchanged.

 

On the technical aspect, the EUR broke down the support at 1.285, which we analyzed last week, and it is sliding downwards to 1.25. Pay attention to the stochastic oscillator, which indicates that the EUR is oversold and might correct-up any day.

 

GBP/USD

The 50 EMA has been following the pair for several weeks and it plays the role of a resistance. Each time the pair touched the 50 EMA it immediately turned over and started a bearish session. So did happen on Tuesday when the pair hit the resistance at 1.566 and slid down to the support of 1.54. The next support is at 1.53 and a break-down there might take the pound down to the psychological number 1.50.

The official bank rate will be published this Thursday, 45 minutes before the European bid rate is published. There are not any surprises expected regarding the interest level and therefore the MPC rate statement will be in the center.

USD/JPY

The pair reached the support at 76.5 and started correcting from this point, as we anticipated on the previous weekly analysis. Two signals suggest that the Yen might keep strengthening. First, the 20 EMA crossed below the 50 EMA, and second, Friday's candlestick ended-up red with a tail upwards. If the price slides under Friday's low, the pair will try to break-down the support at 76.5 again, and if it succeeds, it might fall to 75.5.

However, as we mentioned before, the USD is in a bullish momentum so it might try to climb to 78.0. In order to do that, it will have to break-through Friday's high at 78.3.0

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above