Daily Forex Analysis 2012-02-29

The intensity of the risings in Wall Street is reducing every day as the S&P 500 broke through the resistance at 1370 points but not as powerful as expected. However, the consumer confidence data helped the stocks to remain on the positive territory, as it reached a new high since last year.
 Today's main events are the prelim GDP q/q and Bernanke Testifies.
EUR/USD
The ECB is about to transfer 500 billion Euros to the European banks in order to ease the credit problems and help the Eurozone economy. This action spreads optimism among the EUR investors and the currency is consolidating under 1.35 versus the USD. The pair created the "Bull-Flag" pattern on the daily chart and a break-up of the resistance might lift the price up to the 200 SMA around 1.37. However, this pattern usually comes with high levels of stochastic oscillator, which means that the pair is overbought and could current from the current level. Therefore, the risk of a false-break is higher, unless the EUR corrects down before the break-up occurs. Obviously, there is a possibility that the resistance is going to be to strong and the USD might strengthen against the EUR. In this case, we might see the price slide down to 1.33 or below.

EUR/CAD
The CAD still traded in a narrow channel between 0.992 and 1.005 against the USD and the tails of the recent candlesticks indicate that there are strong sellers around the upper boundary of the channel. Because the CAD is not making any significant changes, the EUR, which is in a bullish momentum these days, is getting higher against the CAD. In fact, the pair has reached the target we set to the break-up at 1.325 last week (1.34) and it is now facing the resistance at 1.35. The pair corrected down to 1.335 but made a green candlestick yesterday, and a break-up of yesterday's high might signal for a bullish reversal and a second attempt for breaking through 1.35.

GBP/USD
The GBP reached the 200 SMA at 1.59 versus the USD and got the expected resistance there. If it manages to overcome this obstacle, the buyers might push the pound above 1.60. However, the trend of the pair is mainly depended on the momentum of the USD, which is influenced by the stock markets. Therefore, if the USD resumes strengthening against the major currencies, the pound might fall down to 1.57 again.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Forex Daily Analysis 2012-02-27

The US stock markets made the unbelievable and completed another green week. Indices rose 0.3% as the S&P 500 is touching the pick at 1370 points and although many analysts estimate that the correction will come soon, there is a good probability that we will see continuation of the rally. Many hedge funds are waiting for a correction of 5%-10% but the indices have traded around the current highs for several days without correcting and this is a sign for another break-up. If the S&P 500 breaks through 1370 points, the hedge funds managers will have no choice but to join the market and this might push the stocks even higher. The main elements that could threat this rally are obviously the European debt problem and the rally of the oil price which is about to cross above 110$.
EUR/USD
The continuation of the strengthening of the stocks weakened the USD against most of the major currencies. Before the previous weeks started, the EUR looked like it was about to correct down, but eventually it opened the week with a gap-up and completed the "cup & handle" pattern under the resistance at 1.33. The EUR successfully broke this pattern and reached the target we set at 1.35 within just two trading days. The next significant resistance is close to the 200 SMA at 1.37, but do not eliminate the option for a bearish correction that will retest 1.33.

GBP/USD
The pound looked extremely weak against the USD on the first days of the previous trading week, but a strong finish took it to the week's height. There was a strong support to the pair at 1.565, which we estimated that a strong break-down of this support would cause sharp declines. However, the support was strong enough and the triple-bottom pattern signaled for the incoming bullish session. The pair broke-through the resistance of the downtrend line and reached the 200 SMA, as a strong break-up of this moving average might take the GBP up to 1.60.

USD/CHF
The CHF broke-down the bearish pattern of the "Head & Shoulders" and might start a significant strengthening movement against the USD. The pair was traded around the support at 0.91 for several weeks and it looked like that each break-down was actually a false-break, but last week the break-down was real and the CHF is already under 0.90 versus the USD. The target for the current session is the 200 SMA at 0.87-0.88.
The main concern of the CHF buyers is an aggressive intervention by the SNB in case the CHF gets too stronger according to the central bank's point of view. This threat definitely real since the SNB has announced before that t would not hesitate to interfere if it needed.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

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FOREX Daily Analysis 2012-02-23

The US stock markets closed a negative trading day in spite of the approval of additional 130 billion Euros for Greece, as part of the bailout plan. However, other geo-political threats are affecting the markets, as the commodities such as oil and metals keep rising.

GBP/USD

Since the pound failed in breaking the 200 SMA earlier this month, it keeps loosing points against the USD. The pair fell to the support at 1.565 and rose from this level but made a lower-highs pattern that indicates of a bearish momentum in the pair. The price reached this support yesterday and a strong break-down might take the GBP down to the level of 1.55. If the stock markets continue the bearish momentum, it will help the USD and weaken the other major currencies, including the GBP. However, the support might pull back the buyers and lift the GBP higher.

GBP/CHF

The CHF is not making any significant movement against the USD these days, and it traded around 0.91, as many short position players are waiting for a strong break-up there. However, the SNB might interfere in case the CHF gains power again and this should be a warning for those who are waiting for the strengthening of the Swiss Franc.

The pair GBP/CHF broke an important support on the daily chart, at 1.435 and many sellers that enter the market during this break-down caused sharp declines. The pair is approaching the 4-months low as the current support is at 1.427, and strong break-up there might slide to 1.415.

EUR/CAD

The EUR did not lose points against the USD yesterday, unlike the other major currencies that weakened against the American dollar. The "Cup & Handle" pattern, which we analyzed in the daily chart, is still valid, so stay alert for a break-up.

The USD has corrected against the CAD in the recent three trading days, and therefore the EUR/CAD is rising. The pair has moved between the support at 1.30 and the resistance at 1.325 for several weeks and it is now trying to break-through the resistance. If it succeeds, the pair might jump to 1.34. However, if the current pattern remain, the pair should turn over from this point and slide downwards to 1.30-1.31.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Daily Analysis 2012-02-22

The US stock markets opened the trading week on the red territory as the S&P 500 once again touched the 3-years high, around 1370 points. The stocks started the day strong but started losing altitude after couple of hours. The pattern of strong opening and weak closing has repeating itself for several days, and each time the investors believe that the weak closing would start the expected correction, but the day after starts with a gap-up, so the stocks might continue rising even today in spite of the bearish session yesterday.

EUR/USD

The EUR reached the target we set on the Weekly analysis and completed the "cup & handle" pattern under the resistance at 1.33. In spite the uncertainty in the Greece situation, the European currency keeps rising, though a negative momentum in the US stock markets might support the USD and weaken the Euro. If the pair breaks-through the resistance, the price might jump to 1.35. Nevertheless, the resistance at 1.33 might be too strong now and the pair might correct downwards to 1.31 if it slides under yesterday's low.

GOLD

The gold made the classic bullish reversal pattern and the trade-idea that we brought up on Friday works exactly according to the plan. The idea was to but the gold in case it would break through $1740 and take the profit at the pick of $1765. Many amateurs are waiting for the gold to break-through the "inverted head & shoulders" pattern at $1765, but those who implemented the trade-idea could take profit when the amateurs plan to enter the market. A successful break-up of this pattern might take the gold's price above $1800, though it is much more dangerous to buy the precious metal in such extreme levels.

An interesting point about the "head & shoulders" pattern is that some technical analysis experts claim that the potential of a break-up of the pattern is the distance between the "head" and the "neck.  In this case, it would be the distance between $1600 and $1765, which means that according to this approach the gold might jump above $1900, but this is obviously does not necessary correct.

Silver

The silver follows the gold in the strong momentum of the precious metal. On Friday's analysis, we mentioned that the level of $34 was an important resistance that the silver had to break in order to resume risings. Yesterday, the silver strongly broke this level and it is approaching the first target we set at the 200 SMA, just below $35. Additional break-up of the 200 SMA might take the silver to the 5-months high at $35.65.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

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Forex Daily Analysis 2012-02-14

The US stock markets opened the trading week with risings of 0.7% on the background of the agreements in Greece, which sent the European stock markets 1% up as well. However, those who expected a sharp reaction by the Euro got disappointed since the European currency weakened against the USD.
Today's important news: GBP- CPI; EUR-German ZEW Economic Sentiment; USD-Core Retail Sales m/m.
NZD/USD
The strong rally of the NZD against the USD, which started on December, has slowed down in the last two weeks. The pair broke through the resistance at 0.825 but could not continue rising and got another resistance at 0.84. The break-up level has become support and the NZD slid to this support on Friday and retested it. The buyers should up at this level and raised the kiwi above 0.83 yesterday and it might try to break-through 0.84 on its way to 0.86. However, a break-down of the support might cause a sharper correction downwards to 40%-50% Fibonacci levels, around 0.815.

EUR/NZD
The weakness of the EUR against the USD helped the NZD to resume strengthening against it. The general trend that appeared in the daily/chart is unquestionably bearish, and it was just a matter of time before the NZD would make the reversal, that came after the pair hit the resistance of the 20 EMA. Yesterday's low was set at the level of 1.578 and a break-down of this level might pull the price down to 1.56 and below. Another signal regarding the bearish reversal of the pair is the fact that stochastic levels are getting higher, which means that the up-correction is over or close to be over.

NZD/CHF
The pair made about 400 pips since it broke up the resistance at 0.73, which we analyzed on the beginning of the year. The pair is currently dealing with the resistance at 0.77 and a strong break-up there might lift the NZD to the level of 0.80 versus the CHF. However, the NZD is in overbought situation against most of the major currencies, including the CHF, and therefore the pair might correct down to the area of 0.74-0.75.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Daily Analysis - Forex Currency Trading News 2012-02-03

The US stock market made another positive day yesterday as the investors were encouraged by the continuing claim data that showed a decline of 12K, whereas analysts expected a decline of 6K comparing to the previous week. However, today is main event as the Non-Farm payrolls change data & the unemployment rate will published one hour before the opening bell in Wall Street. This data is of the most important indicators of the US economy.
EUR/USD
The Euro is facing the resistance at 1.32 against the USD, and the fact that it is overbought reflects in that it did not rise yesterday, in spite the risings of the stock markets. This indicates that the EUR is close to the point in which it will make an aggressive correction, but the NFP data might push it up in spite all of that. A break-up of the support at 1.325 might lift the Euro up to 1.345-1.35, whereas a break-down of the support of the 20 EMA at 1.30 might cause the declines that the market expects.

EUR/JPY
The Yen keeps strengthening against the USD and it reached the strong support at 76.0. A break-down there might take the price down to the historical low at 75.5, but the Yen showed yesterday signals that the current session might over and the USD could correct.
The strengthening of the Yen is well shown against the EUR as well, but the EUR has corrected against the Yen since the middle of January. There is a possible bullish reversal on the daily chart, though the movement of the EUR depends on the NFP data today. Therefore, a break-up of 100.5-101 will be a strong signal for the EUR and it might jump to 102 and a break-down of the 3-days low at 99.0 might pull the price down to 97.0 again.

EUR/CAD
The CAD has been strengthening against the EUR for several months, but the European currency started corrected against the CAD on the previous months, just as it did against the other major currencies. A bullish reversal appears on here as well, as the pair is supported by the 38% Fibonacci level, at 1.31. A break-up of yesterday's high might take it up to the recent pick at 1.325, but a break-down of the support might push the price downwards to 1.30.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

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Daily Analysis - Forex Currency Trading News 2012-02-02

The US stock market soared yesterday in spite of mix economic data. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data showed that the US economy created 170K new jobs in the previous month, comparing to 292K in the month before. Analysts expectations were a growth of 189K new jobs and this disappointing number might indicate for the official release on Friday. The ISM manufacturing PMI was also under the predictions, which is a negative signal for the activity of the manufacturing sector. Today's main news is the unemployment change data and Bernanke's testifies.
USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar joined the global trend of strengthening against the USD in the recent weeks. The pair broke a strong support of the triangle pattern in the daily chart at 1.01 and reached the strong support of the 20 SMA, which is the area of the psychological number 1.0. Traders like round numbers because they are easy to calculate and therefore many automatic orders are put around this level.  The current support should be strong enough for an up-correction, but as long as the stocks keep rising, the USD will probably lose points against the major currencies, including the CAD. A strong break-down of the 200 SMA might take the pair down to the next support at 0.975.

USD/JPY
The Yen broke the important support of 76.5 against the USD and it is moving downwards to the historical low at 75.5. However, those who are counting on another strengthening session of the Yen has to be aware to the possibility that the BOJ might interfere around such a low levels, as it did three months ago. The sophisticated players are aware of this scenario, which might makes them to cover their short positions and support the USD.

CAD/JPY
The fact that both CAD & JPY made bullish session against the USD is making it hard to determine the pair's trend. In fact, the pair has been moving in a channel between 74.75 and 76.5 for several months and last week it made a strong break-up of the upper boundary but got back to the channel when the Yen resumed strengthening.  However, there is a bullish reversal on the daily chart, and the CAD is trying to break-through the resistance at 76.5 again. If it succeeds, the buyers might lift the price to the next resistance at 78.0, but a break-down of yesterday's low might take it down to the lower boundary of the channel at 74.5.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above