Saturday, October 20, 2012
Sunday, August 12, 2012
Daily Analysis 2012-08-13
EUR/USD
Many traders expected the Euro to rise on the background of the bullish momentum in the stock markets. However, investors decided to take advantage of the recent rising in order to sell the Euro. The currency reached a strong support at 1.24 and despite the break up of the US indices, the Euro failed in breaking through. Stochastic levels are still high, which means that the currency might continue falling towards 1.217-1.22. Nevertheless, the tails that extend from Friday's candlestick indicates for a possible bullish reversal. The Euro gets support at 1.2240 and if it crosses above Friday's high, it might show another attempt of breaking through 1.24.
GBP/USD
As we estimated on the previous weekly analysis, the pound continued to be traded between the support at 1.545 and the resistance at 1.57. The currency narrowed the range last week, as a strong support appeared around 1.5550. The pound close on the resistance at 1.57 as it looks ready to break through. If it succeeds, the pound might jump upwards to 1.59. However, the 200 SMA waits just above 1.57 and it might be a tough obstacle for the pound. In case of a failure, the currency might slide to the channel's support at 1.545. Investors will look forwards to Wednesday, as the MPC meeting minutes will be revealed.
USD/JPY
This pair keeps stamping, as it could not break through neither the resistance at 78.85 or the support at 78.0. The main reason for this unclear trend is the contradicting forces of each currency, in which the USD is traded against the general trend. Trading the pair when it has unclear direction is extremely dangerous. Therefore, one should wait until the pair breaks up or breaks down. According to the bearish trend that appears on the daily chart, the Yen is likely to break down. If it does, we might see it around 77.0.
Monday, July 30, 2012
Daily Analysis 2012-07-31
Wall Street opened the trading week on the red territory as NASDAQ shed 0.41%. Dow Jones and S&P 500 lost respectively 0.02% and 0.05% and this indicates for a slight correction to last week's rally. Investors will focus today on consumer confidence data as well on personal spending and personal income data.
EUR/JPY
The Euro is clearly overbought after the sharp rising last week. The currency made a bearish candlestick in the daily chart of EUR/USD and if it slides under yesterday's low, it will ibe an indication for a possible bearish reversal. The Yen, on the other hand, strengthened against the USD yesterday and slid under the important support at 78.25. Therefore, the pair EUR/JPY made a bearish reversal as well. The Euro got the resistance of the 20 EMA on Friday and as a result, a red candlestick appeared in the daily chart. The bullish correction helped the Euro to correct approximately 50% of the recent bearish session, which means that the pair reached proper levels for a bearish reversing. In order to resume strengthening against the Euro, the Japanese Yen will have to break down and close under yesterday's low. If it succeeds, it might strengthen to the level of 94.0 against the Euro.
AUD/JPY
The Australian dollar is currently in a middle of a strong bullish movement against the USD. After it got a strong support at 1.025, the currency rose nearly 250 pips against the USD. The Aussie is now facing the resistance at 1.05 and if it successfully breaks through, it might jump towards 1.07.
The AUD is getting stronger against most of the currencies, including the JPY. Despite the fact that the JPY is gaining power against the USD, the AUD managed to force a break up pattern on the pair's daily chart. The level of 82.35 is resisting the pair and a strong break up might trigger many automatic orders that can lift the pair towards 84.75.
AUD/NZD
We analyzed the pair a week ago and mentioned that it reached a strong resistance in the daily chart. As we expected, stochastic high levels prevented additional break up and the pair corrected down to the support of the 200 SMA. Stochastic levels still indicate for overbuying situation, which means that the bearish correction might continue. If the NZD break down the current support, the pair might fall to 1.285. However, a break up of the 3-days high at 1.30 might push the pair above the resistance at 1.3050.
Daily Analysis 2012-07-30
The financial markets received a strong incentive From the ECB press conference that changed the momentums in both Forex and stock markets. On the beginning of last week it seemed that the Euro was about to slide under 1.20 and that the S&P was going to fall to 1300 points. This was the outcome of high level of concerns regarding the Spanish debt problem. However, everything changed on Thursday as Mario Draghi impressively defended the Eurozone and said that nothing could break it down. Draghi's patriotic speech replaced the pessimism that controlled the markets with optimism and euphoria.
No one can anticipate the Eurozone's future and there is a big question mark above the ability of the ECB to pull the EU countries out of the mass. Yet, it looks like the stock markets resumed trading in uptrend mode. The S&P 500 broke through the recent pick at 1380 points and its next target is the annual high at 1422 points. Nevertheless, the results season is not over yet and may influence the markets during the following week.
EUR/USD
The Euro made first sign for a bullish correction on Wednesday and we estimated then that it would rise towards 1.2325. The currency made the expected short-squeeze and got the resistance we anticipated. The Euro rose 50% of the recent decline session and it might continue towards 1.25 if it keeps the current momentum. However, the general trend here is still bearish and investor will not rush to transfer their investments to the Euro due to the European debt problems. Therefore, this might be an opportunity to sell the Euro. If the currency closes under Friday's low, it might build the bearish reversal pattern and slide downwards to 1.2150.
The markets will focus on two main events during Thursday and Friday. On Thursday, the ECB will publish the interest rate that is expected to remain at 0.75%. On the day after, the important indicator of the Non-Farm payroll change will be published in the US.
GBP/USD
The pound acted exactly as we estimated on the previous weekly analysis. It broke the support at 1.56, slide to the support at 1.5450 and pulled back to the 200 SMA at 1.5730. According to the current pattern, the pound might turnover and slide towards the support at 1.5450. However, it seems that the pound has intentions to continue the bullish momentum. Therefore, if it manages to break through the resistance of the 200 SMA, it might surge upwards to 1.575. The interest rate will be published on Thursday by the central bank of England, 45 minutes ahead the European bid rate announcement.
USD/JPY
Draghi's speech on Thursday helped most of the major currencies to rise against the USD. However, since the Yen had a negative correlation with the US stock markets, it weakened against the American dollar. The JPY failed in breaking down the support at 78.25 and the USD will probably continue strengthening against the JPY if Wall Street continues up. A possible target for a bullish movement may be the resistance of the 200 SMA a t 79.0. The weakening of the JPY and the strengthening of the other major currencies would make it easier to trade JPY pairs (against Yen's direction). A target for a break down session might be at 77.20.
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
Wednesday, July 4, 2012
Forex Daily Analysis 2012-07-05
The holiday in the US influenced the currencies market as the low liquidity blocked some the major currencies' momentum against the USD that took advantage of the situation in order to correct some of the recent declines. Most of the traders in the US extend their vacation to the weekend and will resume to the markets just next week, and this might influence the markets as well. However, the following trading days are full with important indicators that might shakeout the markets.
EUR/USD
Currencies are changing momentums almost every several hours these days, mainly because of the low volatility. Therefore, promising patterns might lead to false-breaks and cause quick losses. This means that the technical analysis could be less accurate than usual and therefore necessary adjustments have to be made. The Euro reached a new weekly low yesterday, as the descending triangle pattern was built above the support at 1.24. A break-down of this pattern will probably take the Euro down to the annual low at 1.2287. The reason for this bearish momentum could be the markets' expectations for a lower interest rate announcement today by the European central bank. However, the ECB press conference might have a positive influence on the Euro if the investors get positive signals from the central bank. Either way, the market tend to be extremely volatile during such significant announcements and trading during the moments of the declaration includes high risk.
GBP/USD
The pound fell under Monday's low and triggered many selling orders that pulled it 100 pips down. The currency got the resistance of the downtrend line and created a triangle pattern in the daily chart. This triangle is neither descending nor ascending, which means that there is a strong conflict between the buyers and the sellers. In such cases, the technical trader has to get prepared for both scenarios of break-up and break-down. According to the current momentum, it looks like the pound is going to slide to the support of the uptrend line at 1.5520, as a strong break-down of this support might pull it down to 1.54. Nevertheless, the pound might continue moving between the triangle's edges until it breaks on of them. The official bank rate is published today in Britain, 45 minutes before the European, as a positive reaction by the investors might launch the pound towards the 200 SMA at 1.5750.
OIL
The price of the crude oil reached a psychological of $80 support last week and started correcting up since then. The sanctions against Iran's oil contributed to the speculations regarding the oil's prices and the traders took advantage of that. The oil rose 10% since last week and the weekly charts shows that the oil has risen over 20% on the last couple of times that it reached this support. This means that the current bullish correction might lift it up towards $100. However, if the oil makes the bearish reversal, successful break-down this time might pull it down to the level of $70.
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Forex Daily Analysis 2012-03-16
Improving economic data supported the US stock markets that closed another green trading-day yesterday. Continuing jobless claims were 351K, lower than analysts' consensus of 354K claims. Philly manufacturing index, which indicates the activity of the manufacturing sector, was higher than expectations as well. Today are published the core CPI M/M & consumer sentiment.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar reached the target we set for the break-down of the support at 1.06, which was the 200 SMA, around 1.04. As we estimated, the break-down of this level caused significant declines and the support appeared around the 200 SMA, which is an indicator that many investors use. The support occurred close to the 50% Fibonacci level, which means that a bullish reversal might start from this point. Stochastic oscillator levels are showing oversold situation, and this supports the possibility for a bullish reversal by the Aussie that might retest the break-down level at 1.06.
AUD/CAD
Most of the major currencies got stronger against the USD yesterday, but the CAD did not make a significant change against the American dollar. The pair USD/CAD is consolidating around 0.99 and it is not clear whether the bears or the bulls have the upper hand now.
The fact that the CAD is stamping versus the USD, helps the AUD to rise against it, after few weeks of heavy sales in the pair AUD/CAD. The pair blocked by the 200 SMA and if this support lasts, the AUD might correct up to 1.055-1.06 and even higher.
EUR/GBP
Both EUR & GBP are traded around strong supports against the USD. The EUR gets support at 1.30, might continue to 1.315-1.32, whereas the GBP has support at 1.565, and might rise to 1.58.
The pair has been moving through a narrow channel and we analyze it each time the pair touches one of the channel's boundaries. Two weeks ago, when the pair traded a little bit higher that 0.83, we brought up the trade idea of trying to take it up to 0.84 and the trade worked exactly as we planned. The pair is close to 0.83 again and if the current pattern remains, the pair will rise towards 0.84. However, a powerful movement of the GBP might cause a break-down of the support and take it down to 0.82.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar reached the target we set for the break-down of the support at 1.06, which was the 200 SMA, around 1.04. As we estimated, the break-down of this level caused significant declines and the support appeared around the 200 SMA, which is an indicator that many investors use. The support occurred close to the 50% Fibonacci level, which means that a bullish reversal might start from this point. Stochastic oscillator levels are showing oversold situation, and this supports the possibility for a bullish reversal by the Aussie that might retest the break-down level at 1.06.
AUD/CAD
Most of the major currencies got stronger against the USD yesterday, but the CAD did not make a significant change against the American dollar. The pair USD/CAD is consolidating around 0.99 and it is not clear whether the bears or the bulls have the upper hand now.
The fact that the CAD is stamping versus the USD, helps the AUD to rise against it, after few weeks of heavy sales in the pair AUD/CAD. The pair blocked by the 200 SMA and if this support lasts, the AUD might correct up to 1.055-1.06 and even higher.
EUR/GBP
Both EUR & GBP are traded around strong supports against the USD. The EUR gets support at 1.30, might continue to 1.315-1.32, whereas the GBP has support at 1.565, and might rise to 1.58.
The pair has been moving through a narrow channel and we analyze it each time the pair touches one of the channel's boundaries. Two weeks ago, when the pair traded a little bit higher that 0.83, we brought up the trade idea of trying to take it up to 0.84 and the trade worked exactly as we planned. The pair is close to 0.83 again and if the current pattern remains, the pair will rise towards 0.84. However, a powerful movement of the GBP might cause a break-down of the support and take it down to 0.82.
Risk Disclosure
Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD indexes and other financial products with or without using high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.
You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
FOREX Daily Analysis 2012-03-08
As we estimated, the US stock market made the bullish correction to the declines from the beginning of the week, and those who expected to see a crashing of the stock got the exact opposite. Wall Street can easily slide to the bearish momentum again but the most important thing here to understand is that the general trend is still bullish, which means that those who missed the rally might buy stocks after the slightest correction.
EUR/USD
The next two days are full with important economic data as today is published the European interest rate, which expected to remain at 1.0% and the investors will look forward to the ECB press conference.
The risings in Wall Street helped the Euro that found a support at 1.31, and if the investors like what they hear from the ECB president, the currency might jump to the resistance at 1.325. However, a break-down of yesterday's low could take the pair under 1.30.
EUR/GBP
The pound failed in breaking through the 200 SMA on Tuesday and the sharp declines in Wall Street that day, pulled the pound down to 1.57. The British currency corrected yesterday and the MPC rate statement today will influence its direction today.
Both EUR & GBP are moving in the same trend versus the USD and therefore the pair EUR/GBP has been stamping in the last couple of months. The pair is approaching the resistance at 0.84, which it broke last month but fell under it few days after the break-up. According to this pattern, the pair supposed to rise to 0.84 and try to break it through again. However, if the pound gets extremely stronger and the pair breaks down the support at 0.83, it might slide towards 0.82.
USD/CAD
The pair reached the target we set at the psychological number 1.0 and the strengthening of the USD has stopped due to the bullish correction of the stocks. The interest rate is published today in Canada, 30 minutes after the ECB press conference begins and like the other interest rates that are published today the Canadian interest is expected to remain unchanged. If the USD continues strengthening against the CAD and overcomes the resistance at 1.0 then the price might reach 1.015. However, if the bearish reversal occurs, the price might fall back to 0.98 again.
EUR/USD
The next two days are full with important economic data as today is published the European interest rate, which expected to remain at 1.0% and the investors will look forward to the ECB press conference.
The risings in Wall Street helped the Euro that found a support at 1.31, and if the investors like what they hear from the ECB president, the currency might jump to the resistance at 1.325. However, a break-down of yesterday's low could take the pair under 1.30.
EUR/GBP
The pound failed in breaking through the 200 SMA on Tuesday and the sharp declines in Wall Street that day, pulled the pound down to 1.57. The British currency corrected yesterday and the MPC rate statement today will influence its direction today.
Both EUR & GBP are moving in the same trend versus the USD and therefore the pair EUR/GBP has been stamping in the last couple of months. The pair is approaching the resistance at 0.84, which it broke last month but fell under it few days after the break-up. According to this pattern, the pair supposed to rise to 0.84 and try to break it through again. However, if the pound gets extremely stronger and the pair breaks down the support at 0.83, it might slide towards 0.82.
USD/CAD
The pair reached the target we set at the psychological number 1.0 and the strengthening of the USD has stopped due to the bullish correction of the stocks. The interest rate is published today in Canada, 30 minutes after the ECB press conference begins and like the other interest rates that are published today the Canadian interest is expected to remain unchanged. If the USD continues strengthening against the CAD and overcomes the resistance at 1.0 then the price might reach 1.015. However, if the bearish reversal occurs, the price might fall back to 0.98 again.
Risk Disclosure
Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD indexes and other financial products with or without using high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.
You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above
Monday, March 5, 2012
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Sunday, March 4, 2012
Forex Daily Analysis 2012-03-05
Wall Street closed another green trading week as NASDAQ kept setting new highs, S&P 500 crossed above the important level of 1370 points, though eventually it closed under this resistance. The rising came on the background of improving economic data as GDP showed an annual growth of 3% and continuing jobless claims fell to new low.
This week was extremely volatile in the commodities market as oil prices touched the level of $110 after rumors regarding attack on one of Saudi Arabia important oil fields, but the largest oil producer denied the rumors and the oil closed around $106 on Friday. The precious metals were also on the center after Bernanke said that the price of $1800 for an ounce of gold reflects a bubble and caused heavy sales of the metal that shed $80 that day. The silver also influenced by the events and fell nearly 10% during Wednesday.
EUR/USD
Europe got some encouraging events during the last two-weeks and after the Greece crisis seemed to be calmed for a while, the ECB gave the European banks more than 500 billion Euros in order to ease the credit problem that the banks are having. The European bid rate published on Thursday and it expected to remain on the current levels. However, as usual, the investors will wait for the ECB press conference to get indication about the economic situation. One of the most important data is published on Friday, which is the employment status in the US - Non Farm payroll change & unemployment rate.
On the technical aspect, in spite the fact the US stock market rose, the EUR loose power against the USD after few weeks of a bullish rally. Stochastic levels are indicating for an overbuying situation, which means that the EUR might correct down to 1.30. However, strong rally in the stocks might help the EUR to resume strengthening.
GBP/USD
The pound made an impressive bullish session after the USD failed in breaking-down the support at 1.565 two weeks ago. The pair made the triple-bottom on the support and reached the target we set for the bullish movement at 1.60. The expected resistance appeared around that levels and heavy selling took the pair down under 1.58. If the USD continues strengthening, the pair might fall to 1.565 again. However, the pair reached Fibonacci levels in which a bullish reversal might occur.
The bank of England will announce the interest rate on Thursday, 45 minutes before the ECB. The bank rate is expected to remain unchanged and the investors will concentrate on the MPC rate statement.
USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar has been strengthening against the USD for several months and last week the pair broke down the important support at 0.99. However, as it usually happens after break-down or break-ups of extreme levels, the pair did not continue falling and it closed around the break-down level on Friday. A better than expected GDP data published in Canada that day but the general strengthening of the USD prevent the CAD from gaining more power. If the USD continues rising, the pair might reach the 200 SMA and the psychological number 1.0. However, if the bearish reversal occurs around the current level, the CAD might try to slide under 0.98.
The Bank of Canada will publish the interest rate on Thursday, half-hour after the ECB, and the interest rate is expected to remain at 1.0%.
Risk Disclosure
Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD indexes and other financial products with or without using high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.
You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above
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internet-partner
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Thursday, March 1, 2012
Daily Forex Analysis 2012-03-02
The US stock markets are about to close another green week as NASDAQ led the indices with 0.75% up. The risings came on the background of mixed data as unemployment claims were lower than the forecasts but the ISM manufacturing PMI disappointed, as well as the personal spending & income.
GBP/USD
The continuation of the risings in Wall Street supports the major currencies versus the USD, including the pound that just last week traded around 1.56, and it is now approaching 1.60. The pound created the triple-bottom on that support and though it looked like it was about to break-down, the British currency managed to rise and overcame the resistance of the 200 SMA, which is now supporting it. A break-up of the resistance at 1.60 might take the price to the highest pick since October 2011 at 1.6165.
AUD/USD
The Aussie is trying to break-through the resistance at 1.08, in which it has failed to break few times in the recent months. In fact, many up-tails extend from the candlesticks from the recent period, which means that there are many sellers around this level and the next break-up might be another false one. However, the pair made a correction down to 1.06 last week and this might give the Aussie enough power to make a powerful break-up. If it succeeds, the pair might jump to the next height at 1.105.
Precious Metals
The precious metals had a great momentum since the beginning of the year. They rose sharply since the beginning of the year, after rough times in the second half of 2011. Bernanke's speech on Wednesday disrupt the investors plan as he mentioned that the Gold's prices were too high and caused sharp declines in both Gold $ Silver prices. The expected up-correction occurred yesterday and the main question in this point is whether the prices break Wednesday low and continue falling, or rise above yesterday's high and try to get back to their recent picks.
GBP/USD
The continuation of the risings in Wall Street supports the major currencies versus the USD, including the pound that just last week traded around 1.56, and it is now approaching 1.60. The pound created the triple-bottom on that support and though it looked like it was about to break-down, the British currency managed to rise and overcame the resistance of the 200 SMA, which is now supporting it. A break-up of the resistance at 1.60 might take the price to the highest pick since October 2011 at 1.6165.
AUD/USD
The Aussie is trying to break-through the resistance at 1.08, in which it has failed to break few times in the recent months. In fact, many up-tails extend from the candlesticks from the recent period, which means that there are many sellers around this level and the next break-up might be another false one. However, the pair made a correction down to 1.06 last week and this might give the Aussie enough power to make a powerful break-up. If it succeeds, the pair might jump to the next height at 1.105.
Precious Metals
The precious metals had a great momentum since the beginning of the year. They rose sharply since the beginning of the year, after rough times in the second half of 2011. Bernanke's speech on Wednesday disrupt the investors plan as he mentioned that the Gold's prices were too high and caused sharp declines in both Gold $ Silver prices. The expected up-correction occurred yesterday and the main question in this point is whether the prices break Wednesday low and continue falling, or rise above yesterday's high and try to get back to their recent picks.
Risk Disclosure
Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD indexes and other financial products with or without using high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.
You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above
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Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Daily Forex Analysis 2012-02-29
The intensity of the risings in Wall Street is reducing every day as the S&P 500 broke through the resistance at 1370 points but not as powerful as expected. However, the consumer confidence data helped the stocks to remain on the positive territory, as it reached a new high since last year.
Today's main events are the prelim GDP q/q and Bernanke Testifies.
EUR/USD
The ECB is about to transfer 500 billion Euros to the European banks in order to ease the credit problems and help the Eurozone economy. This action spreads optimism among the EUR investors and the currency is consolidating under 1.35 versus the USD. The pair created the "Bull-Flag" pattern on the daily chart and a break-up of the resistance might lift the price up to the 200 SMA around 1.37. However, this pattern usually comes with high levels of stochastic oscillator, which means that the pair is overbought and could current from the current level. Therefore, the risk of a false-break is higher, unless the EUR corrects down before the break-up occurs. Obviously, there is a possibility that the resistance is going to be to strong and the USD might strengthen against the EUR. In this case, we might see the price slide down to 1.33 or below.
EUR/CAD
The CAD still traded in a narrow channel between 0.992 and 1.005 against the USD and the tails of the recent candlesticks indicate that there are strong sellers around the upper boundary of the channel. Because the CAD is not making any significant changes, the EUR, which is in a bullish momentum these days, is getting higher against the CAD. In fact, the pair has reached the target we set to the break-up at 1.325 last week (1.34) and it is now facing the resistance at 1.35. The pair corrected down to 1.335 but made a green candlestick yesterday, and a break-up of yesterday's high might signal for a bullish reversal and a second attempt for breaking through 1.35.
GBP/USD
The GBP reached the 200 SMA at 1.59 versus the USD and got the expected resistance there. If it manages to overcome this obstacle, the buyers might push the pound above 1.60. However, the trend of the pair is mainly depended on the momentum of the USD, which is influenced by the stock markets. Therefore, if the USD resumes strengthening against the major currencies, the pound might fall down to 1.57 again.
Today's main events are the prelim GDP q/q and Bernanke Testifies.
EUR/USD
The ECB is about to transfer 500 billion Euros to the European banks in order to ease the credit problems and help the Eurozone economy. This action spreads optimism among the EUR investors and the currency is consolidating under 1.35 versus the USD. The pair created the "Bull-Flag" pattern on the daily chart and a break-up of the resistance might lift the price up to the 200 SMA around 1.37. However, this pattern usually comes with high levels of stochastic oscillator, which means that the pair is overbought and could current from the current level. Therefore, the risk of a false-break is higher, unless the EUR corrects down before the break-up occurs. Obviously, there is a possibility that the resistance is going to be to strong and the USD might strengthen against the EUR. In this case, we might see the price slide down to 1.33 or below.
EUR/CAD
The CAD still traded in a narrow channel between 0.992 and 1.005 against the USD and the tails of the recent candlesticks indicate that there are strong sellers around the upper boundary of the channel. Because the CAD is not making any significant changes, the EUR, which is in a bullish momentum these days, is getting higher against the CAD. In fact, the pair has reached the target we set to the break-up at 1.325 last week (1.34) and it is now facing the resistance at 1.35. The pair corrected down to 1.335 but made a green candlestick yesterday, and a break-up of yesterday's high might signal for a bullish reversal and a second attempt for breaking through 1.35.
GBP/USD
The GBP reached the 200 SMA at 1.59 versus the USD and got the expected resistance there. If it manages to overcome this obstacle, the buyers might push the pound above 1.60. However, the trend of the pair is mainly depended on the momentum of the USD, which is influenced by the stock markets. Therefore, if the USD resumes strengthening against the major currencies, the pound might fall down to 1.57 again.
Risk Disclosure
Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD indexes and other financial products with or without using high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.
You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Forex Daily Analysis 2012-02-27
The US stock markets made the unbelievable and completed another green week. Indices rose 0.3% as the S&P 500 is touching the pick at 1370 points and although many analysts estimate that the correction will come soon, there is a good probability that we will see continuation of the rally. Many hedge funds are waiting for a correction of 5%-10% but the indices have traded around the current highs for several days without correcting and this is a sign for another break-up. If the S&P 500 breaks through 1370 points, the hedge funds managers will have no choice but to join the market and this might push the stocks even higher. The main elements that could threat this rally are obviously the European debt problem and the rally of the oil price which is about to cross above 110$.
EUR/USD
The continuation of the strengthening of the stocks weakened the USD against most of the major currencies. Before the previous weeks started, the EUR looked like it was about to correct down, but eventually it opened the week with a gap-up and completed the "cup & handle" pattern under the resistance at 1.33. The EUR successfully broke this pattern and reached the target we set at 1.35 within just two trading days. The next significant resistance is close to the 200 SMA at 1.37, but do not eliminate the option for a bearish correction that will retest 1.33.
GBP/USD
The pound looked extremely weak against the USD on the first days of the previous trading week, but a strong finish took it to the week's height. There was a strong support to the pair at 1.565, which we estimated that a strong break-down of this support would cause sharp declines. However, the support was strong enough and the triple-bottom pattern signaled for the incoming bullish session. The pair broke-through the resistance of the downtrend line and reached the 200 SMA, as a strong break-up of this moving average might take the GBP up to 1.60.
USD/CHF
The CHF broke-down the bearish pattern of the "Head & Shoulders" and might start a significant strengthening movement against the USD. The pair was traded around the support at 0.91 for several weeks and it looked like that each break-down was actually a false-break, but last week the break-down was real and the CHF is already under 0.90 versus the USD. The target for the current session is the 200 SMA at 0.87-0.88.
The main concern of the CHF buyers is an aggressive intervention by the SNB in case the CHF gets too stronger according to the central bank's point of view. This threat definitely real since the SNB has announced before that t would not hesitate to interfere if it needed.
EUR/USD
The continuation of the strengthening of the stocks weakened the USD against most of the major currencies. Before the previous weeks started, the EUR looked like it was about to correct down, but eventually it opened the week with a gap-up and completed the "cup & handle" pattern under the resistance at 1.33. The EUR successfully broke this pattern and reached the target we set at 1.35 within just two trading days. The next significant resistance is close to the 200 SMA at 1.37, but do not eliminate the option for a bearish correction that will retest 1.33.
GBP/USD
The pound looked extremely weak against the USD on the first days of the previous trading week, but a strong finish took it to the week's height. There was a strong support to the pair at 1.565, which we estimated that a strong break-down of this support would cause sharp declines. However, the support was strong enough and the triple-bottom pattern signaled for the incoming bullish session. The pair broke-through the resistance of the downtrend line and reached the 200 SMA, as a strong break-up of this moving average might take the GBP up to 1.60.
USD/CHF
The CHF broke-down the bearish pattern of the "Head & Shoulders" and might start a significant strengthening movement against the USD. The pair was traded around the support at 0.91 for several weeks and it looked like that each break-down was actually a false-break, but last week the break-down was real and the CHF is already under 0.90 versus the USD. The target for the current session is the 200 SMA at 0.87-0.88.
The main concern of the CHF buyers is an aggressive intervention by the SNB in case the CHF gets too stronger according to the central bank's point of view. This threat definitely real since the SNB has announced before that t would not hesitate to interfere if it needed.
Risk Disclosure
Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD indexes and other financial products with or without using high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.
You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above
Friday, February 24, 2012
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
FOREX Daily Analysis 2012-02-23
The US stock markets closed a negative trading day in spite of the approval of additional 130 billion Euros for Greece, as part of the bailout plan. However, other geo-political threats are affecting the markets, as the commodities such as oil and metals keep rising.
GBP/USD
Since the pound failed in breaking the 200 SMA earlier this month, it keeps loosing points against the USD. The pair fell to the support at 1.565 and rose from this level but made a lower-highs pattern that indicates of a bearish momentum in the pair. The price reached this support yesterday and a strong break-down might take the GBP down to the level of 1.55. If the stock markets continue the bearish momentum, it will help the USD and weaken the other major currencies, including the GBP. However, the support might pull back the buyers and lift the GBP higher.
GBP/CHF
The CHF is not making any significant movement against the USD these days, and it traded around 0.91, as many short position players are waiting for a strong break-up there. However, the SNB might interfere in case the CHF gains power again and this should be a warning for those who are waiting for the strengthening of the Swiss Franc.
The pair GBP/CHF broke an important support on the daily chart, at 1.435 and many sellers that enter the market during this break-down caused sharp declines. The pair is approaching the 4-months low as the current support is at 1.427, and strong break-up there might slide to 1.415.
EUR/CAD
The EUR did not lose points against the USD yesterday, unlike the other major currencies that weakened against the American dollar. The "Cup & Handle" pattern, which we analyzed in the daily chart, is still valid, so stay alert for a break-up.
The USD has corrected against the CAD in the recent three trading days, and therefore the EUR/CAD is rising. The pair has moved between the support at 1.30 and the resistance at 1.325 for several weeks and it is now trying to break-through the resistance. If it succeeds, the pair might jump to 1.34. However, if the current pattern remain, the pair should turn over from this point and slide downwards to 1.30-1.31.
Risk Disclosure
Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD indexes and other financial products with or without using high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.
You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Daily Analysis 2012-02-22
The US stock markets opened the trading week on the red territory as the S&P 500 once again touched the 3-years high, around 1370 points. The stocks started the day strong but started losing altitude after couple of hours. The pattern of strong opening and weak closing has repeating itself for several days, and each time the investors believe that the weak closing would start the expected correction, but the day after starts with a gap-up, so the stocks might continue rising even today in spite of the bearish session yesterday.
EUR/USD
The EUR reached the target we set on the Weekly analysis and completed the "cup & handle" pattern under the resistance at 1.33. In spite the uncertainty in the Greece situation, the European currency keeps rising, though a negative momentum in the US stock markets might support the USD and weaken the Euro. If the pair breaks-through the resistance, the price might jump to 1.35. Nevertheless, the resistance at 1.33 might be too strong now and the pair might correct downwards to 1.31 if it slides under yesterday's low.
GOLD
The gold made the classic bullish reversal pattern and the trade-idea that we brought up on Friday works exactly according to the plan. The idea was to but the gold in case it would break through $1740 and take the profit at the pick of $1765. Many amateurs are waiting for the gold to break-through the "inverted head & shoulders" pattern at $1765, but those who implemented the trade-idea could take profit when the amateurs plan to enter the market. A successful break-up of this pattern might take the gold's price above $1800, though it is much more dangerous to buy the precious metal in such extreme levels.
An interesting point about the "head & shoulders" pattern is that some technical analysis experts claim that the potential of a break-up of the pattern is the distance between the "head" and the "neck. In this case, it would be the distance between $1600 and $1765, which means that according to this approach the gold might jump above $1900, but this is obviously does not necessary correct.
Silver
The silver follows the gold in the strong momentum of the precious metal. On Friday's analysis, we mentioned that the level of $34 was an important resistance that the silver had to break in order to resume risings. Yesterday, the silver strongly broke this level and it is approaching the first target we set at the 200 SMA, just below $35. Additional break-up of the 200 SMA might take the silver to the 5-months high at $35.65.
Risk Disclosure
Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD indexes and other financial products with or without using high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.
You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above
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