Daily Analysis 2012-07-31

Wall Street opened the trading week on the red territory as NASDAQ shed 0.41%. Dow Jones and S&P 500 lost respectively 0.02% and 0.05% and this indicates for a slight correction to last week's rally. Investors will focus today on consumer confidence data as well on personal spending and personal income data.

EUR/JPY

The Euro is clearly overbought after the sharp rising last week. The currency made a bearish candlestick in the daily chart of EUR/USD and if it slides under yesterday's low, it will ibe an indication for a possible bearish reversal. The Yen, on the other hand, strengthened against the USD yesterday and slid under the important support at 78.25. Therefore, the pair EUR/JPY made a bearish reversal as well. The Euro got the resistance of the 20 EMA on Friday and as a result, a red candlestick appeared in the daily chart. The bullish correction helped the Euro to correct approximately 50% of the recent bearish session, which means that the pair reached proper levels for a bearish reversing. In order to resume strengthening against the Euro, the Japanese Yen will have to break down and close under yesterday's low. If it succeeds, it might strengthen to the level of 94.0 against the Euro.

AUD/JPY

The Australian dollar is currently in a middle of a strong bullish movement against the USD. After it got a strong support at 1.025, the currency rose nearly 250 pips against the USD. The Aussie is now facing the resistance at 1.05 and if it successfully breaks through, it might jump towards 1.07.

The AUD is getting stronger against most of the currencies, including the JPY. Despite the fact that the JPY is gaining power against the USD, the AUD managed to force a break up pattern on the pair's daily chart. The level of 82.35 is resisting the pair and a strong break up might trigger many automatic orders that can lift the pair towards 84.75.

AUD/NZD

We analyzed the pair a week ago and mentioned that it reached a strong resistance in the daily chart. As we expected, stochastic high levels prevented additional break up and the pair corrected down to the support of the 200 SMA. Stochastic levels still indicate for overbuying situation, which means that the bearish correction might continue. If the NZD break down the current support, the pair might fall to 1.285. However, a break up of the 3-days high at 1.30 might push the pair above the resistance at 1.3050.

Daily Analysis 2012-07-30

The financial markets received a strong incentive From the ECB press conference that changed the momentums in both Forex and stock markets. On the beginning of last week it seemed that the Euro was about to slide under 1.20 and that the S&P was going to fall to 1300 points. This was the outcome of high level of concerns regarding the Spanish debt problem. However, everything changed on Thursday as Mario Draghi impressively defended the Eurozone and said that nothing could break it down. Draghi's patriotic speech replaced the pessimism that controlled the markets with optimism and euphoria.

No one can anticipate the Eurozone's future and there is a big question mark above the ability of the ECB to pull the EU countries out of the mass. Yet, it looks like the stock markets resumed trading in uptrend mode. The S&P 500 broke through the recent pick at 1380 points and its next target is the annual high at 1422 points. Nevertheless, the results season is not over yet and may influence the markets during the following week.

EUR/USD

The Euro made first sign for a bullish correction on Wednesday and we estimated then that it would rise towards 1.2325. The currency made the expected short-squeeze and got the resistance we anticipated. The Euro rose 50% of the recent decline session and it might continue towards 1.25 if it keeps the current momentum. However, the general trend here is still bearish and investor will not rush to transfer their investments to the Euro due to the European debt problems. Therefore, this might be an opportunity to sell the Euro. If the currency closes under Friday's low, it might build the bearish reversal pattern and slide downwards to 1.2150.

The markets will focus on two main events during Thursday and Friday. On Thursday, the ECB will publish the interest rate that is expected to remain at 0.75%. On the day after, the important indicator of the Non-Farm payroll change will be published in the US.

GBP/USD

The pound acted exactly as we estimated on the previous weekly analysis. It broke the support at 1.56, slide to the support at 1.5450 and pulled back to the 200 SMA at 1.5730. According to the current pattern, the pound might turnover and slide towards the support at 1.5450. However, it seems that the pound has intentions to continue the bullish momentum. Therefore, if it manages to break through the resistance of the 200 SMA, it might surge upwards to 1.575. The interest rate will be published on Thursday by the central bank of England, 45 minutes ahead the European bid rate announcement.

USD/JPY

Draghi's speech on Thursday helped most of the major currencies to rise against the USD. However, since the Yen had a negative correlation with the US stock markets, it weakened against the American dollar. The JPY failed in breaking down the support at 78.25 and the USD will probably continue strengthening against the JPY if Wall Street continues up. A possible target for a bullish movement may be the resistance of the 200 SMA a t 79.0. The weakening of the JPY and the strengthening of the other major currencies would make it easier to trade JPY pairs (against Yen's direction). A target for a break down session might be at 77.20.

Daily Analysis 2012-01-09

The US stock market opened the year on the green territory as the major indices rose 1.7% during the week. The S&P 500 is approaching the resistance at 1300 points and NASDAQ is heading towards 2400 points. A break-up of these important resistances might help the indices to rise up to the 52-weeks highs.

The most important and encouraging event during last week was the Non-farm payroll change data that showed an increase of 200K jobs in the US economy, whereas the expectations were an increase of 152K new jobs. In addition, the unemployment rate was down by 0.2% to 8.5%. This surprising news regarding the American unemployment status launched the stock markets and supported the US dollar against most of the currencies.

EUR/USD

Unlike the US, the news from Europe is still bad. Hungary's rank was downgraded to junk due to the policy of its prime minister. Other countries are still struggling with their huge debts and the EUR keeps loosing points.  All of these political crises are pulling the Euro down and the investors are running away from this currency, but the ECB press conference on Thursday will try to change that. The minimum bid rate is expected to remain unchanged.

 

On the technical aspect, the EUR broke down the support at 1.285, which we analyzed last week, and it is sliding downwards to 1.25. Pay attention to the stochastic oscillator, which indicates that the EUR is oversold and might correct-up any day.

 

GBP/USD

The 50 EMA has been following the pair for several weeks and it plays the role of a resistance. Each time the pair touched the 50 EMA it immediately turned over and started a bearish session. So did happen on Tuesday when the pair hit the resistance at 1.566 and slid down to the support of 1.54. The next support is at 1.53 and a break-down there might take the pound down to the psychological number 1.50.

The official bank rate will be published this Thursday, 45 minutes before the European bid rate is published. There are not any surprises expected regarding the interest level and therefore the MPC rate statement will be in the center.

USD/JPY

The pair reached the support at 76.5 and started correcting from this point, as we anticipated on the previous weekly analysis. Two signals suggest that the Yen might keep strengthening. First, the 20 EMA crossed below the 50 EMA, and second, Friday's candlestick ended-up red with a tail upwards. If the price slides under Friday's low, the pair will try to break-down the support at 76.5 again, and if it succeeds, it might fall to 75.5.

However, as we mentioned before, the USD is in a bullish momentum so it might try to climb to 78.0. In order to do that, it will have to break-through Friday's high at 78.3.0

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

FOREX Daily Analysis 2012-01-06

The ADP non-farm payroll data beat the estimations yesterday and lifted the stock markets. The number of continuing jobless claims was less than analysts' expectations and this contributed to the positive atmosphere in Wall Street. Nevertheless, the investors have been waiting the whole week for the official Non-farm payroll data that is published today. The NFP is the most important indicator regarding the US economy, and has the highest impact on all of the financial markets around the globe.

The reason for this is that this information tells the story about the most important thing regarding  the US economy these days- the unemployment status. A growth in the NFP data will support the assumption that the US economy has started to pull itself out of the deep recession. However, disappointing results might cause an aggressive reaction by the financial markets and crash them down.

EUR/USD

The better than expected economic data helped the USD to continue its bullish momentum. The investors, who see the news regarding the ADP NFP change, figure that the US economy is in a better condition than many other developed countries and therefore the USD made an impressive movement yesterday, in spite of the rising of the stocks.

The first week of 2012 tells us that the investors do not see a bright future for the European economy and they sale Euros in every opportunity they get. The pair successfully broke-down the psychological support of 1.30 and it is now heading towards 1.25. If the EUR keeps losing points so fast, we might see it at 1.15 within just few months.

GOLD

The metals have started 2012 with a bullish momentum but it is hard to tell in this point if this can mean anything about the trends of the year. The precious metals closed 2011 with sharp declines, which we knew how to take profits of, and therefore the recent up-correction was expected in the technical point of view.

 The gold reached the 200 SMA, which was the target we set for the current correction, and it might continue rising towards $1650-$1700 if the positive atmosphere in the stock markets remains.  Likewise, the 200 SMA might be a strong resistance that will force the gold to reverse down from this point.

SILVER

The silver is trying to retest the break-down area of $30, which it broke three weeks ago. The metal made the double-bottom pattern on the support of $26, but this bullish pattern does not necessary mean that the silver is going to continue rising. A break-up of the resistance at $30 might cause a short-squeeze that can take the price up to $31.5, but stochastic levels indicate that the current bullish correction is about to over, so a bearish reversal is possible here.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

FOREX Daily Analysis 2012-01-05

Wall Street continued the bullish momentum yesterday and so did the commodities market. The gold has completed a rally of 6% since the beginning of the week and the crude oil price rose the percentage as well. It will be interesting to see if this positive atmosphere in the markets will remain after the employment data tomorrow.

USD/CHF

The risings of the stocks weakened the USD against most of the currencies, but the CHF was not one of them. It looks like that the investors are afraid to invest in the CHF, mainly because of a possible intervention of the SNB. The break-up level of 0.93 has become a stable supporting level in the last few weeks. The impression is that strong buyers are picking the USD each time it gets to 0.93, and this might indicate for the pair's direction in the following weeks. A break-up of 0.945 could take the price up to 0.955 again, and even to 1.0. However, a break-down of the support at 0.93 might start an aggressive down-correction.

USD/JPY

The pair broke the support of 77.0 and slid to the next one at 76.5 and the buyers showed up there, which means that there are good chances for an up-correction from this point. Stochastic low levels support this assumption. However, the 20 EMA crossed below the 50 EMA, which is a bearish signal for the pair and it might signal that the Yen has not finished its current movement. Therefore, we might see an attempt of breaking-down the support at 76.5 and falling to the historical low at 75.5.

GBP/JPY

The pound has been strengthening against the USD since the beginning of the year, but the Yen is relatively stronger and therefore the pair's daily chart shows a clear bearish trend. The pair broke a strong support last week and made a slight correction on Tuesday. The GBP is obviously oversold so it might continue correcting towards 121.0-121.5. However, the general trend is still bearish and therefore the pair might reverse down any moment.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

EUR/AUD. Buy Above 1.2590 - January 4, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

EUR/AUD
The euro-Australian dollar pair, its lowest level recorded in 2012, at the moment is around a 1.2572 weekly support, we believe that if the pair backs, and closes negotiations today, above 1.2590 there will be our point of entry with the target at 1.2980. 

EUR/USD - Buy Above 61.8% - for January 4, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

EUR/USD

The euro - U.S. dollar pair gained strength yesterday, having ascended 1.3075, when the German unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 6.8% from 6.9% in December and after successful bonds auctions in France yesterday.
Today we see a bearish tone again, according to the Fibonacci retraction, the euro is at the level of 50% and we still believe that it lacks correction to 61.8% of retraction around 1.2943, at this retracement level, we will place our point input with the ultimate goal in resistance line around 1.3180 dollars per euro.

EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 02 - 06, January, 2012

The pivot point (PPv) is itself a level of support/resistance. It is considered as the largest price movement that can occur in a particular price. The pivot points are used in many ways, but typically are used to determine the overall market trend and to identify entry and exit levels.

In the charts, the weekly and monthly pivots are shown, you can use them as a map in your forex working, it will serve to identify possible points of entry and exit. I recommend using this tool, pivot points, in addition to other indicators of your choice.
You can copy or save these weekly pivot levels for easy reference, and when the market makes strong movements you will know beforehand, what level of price the market will rebound to or when it will change its trend.

____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.3288
Weekly - R2 = 1.3185
Weekly - R1 = 1.3063
Weekly Pivot = 1.2960
Weekly - S1 = 1.2838
Weekly - S2 = 1.2735
Weekly - S3 = 1.2613







____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.4066
Monthly - R2 = 1.3808
Monthly - R1 = 1.3374
Monthly Pivot = 1.3116
Monthly - S1 = 1.2682
Monthly - S2 = 1.2424
Monthly - S3 = 1.1990

USD/CAD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for 02 - 06 January, 2012

The pivot point (PPv) is itself a level of support/resistance. It is considered as the largest price movement that can occur in a particular price. The pivot points are used in many ways, but typically are used to determine the overall market trend and to identify entry and exit levels.

In the charts, the weekly and monthly pivots are shown, you can use them as a map in your forex working, it will serve to identify possible points of entry and exit. I recommend using this tool, pivot points, in addition to other indicators of your choice.
You can copy or save these weekly pivot levels for easy reference, and when the market makes strong movements you will know beforehand, what level of price the market will rebound to or when it will change its trend.

____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0413
Weekly - R2 = 1.0340
Weekly - R1 = 1.0272
Weekly Pivot = 1.0199
Weekly - S1 = 1.0131
Weekly - S2 = 1.0058
Weekly - S3 = 0.9990






____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.0773
Monthly - R2 = 1.0598
Monthly - R1 = 1.0401
Monthly Pivot = 1.0226
Monthly - S1 = 1.0029
Monthly - S2 = 0.9854
Monthly - S3 = 0.9657