EUR/USD Weekly Outlook 9-13 September 2013

গতসপ্তাহে EUR/USD 1.3451 প্রাইস থেকে অনেকটা নিচে 1.3104 প্রাইসে Low তৈরি করেছে। এবং Long Term Outlook এ সাইড ওয়ে মুভমেন্ট এর সিগন্যাল দিচ্ছে। প্রাইসের কারেন্ট ডাউন ওয়ার্ড মুভমেন্ট 1.2755 থেকে শুরু হওয়া আপ ট্রেন্ড 1.3451 প্রাইসে কমপ্লিট হয়ে যাবার সিগন্যাল দিচ্ছে। এবং আবার Low 1.2755 কে টেস্ট করার ডাউন ট্রেন্ড Develop হতে যাচ্ছে বলে মনে হচ্ছে। মার্কেট মুভমেন্ট সাইড ওয়ে হবার কারনে Resistance 1.3222 কে গুরুত্ব দিচ্ছি । Resistance 1.3222 এর ব্রেক হলে মার্কেট মুভমেন্ট পুনরায় বুলিশ হবে আশা করছি এবং 1.3451 কে Re-test করবে।

 

আমরা যদি আরও বড় টাইম ফ্রেম এর  চার্ট দেখি, তাহলে EUR/USD পেয়ারে side way movement পরিস্কার হয়ে উঠবে। তাই Specific কোন ট্রেড এর জন্য সাপোর্ট 1.2746 অথবা Resistance 1.3451 এর ব্রেক প্রয়োজন। 

GOLD Weekly Outlook 9-13 September 2013

Gold ২৮ জুন থেকে আপ ট্রেন্ডে রয়েছে। তবে পেয়ারটি ডাউন চ্যানেল এ থাকায় কিছুটা বেয়ারিশ মুভমেন্ট দেখা গিয়েছিল। সাপোর্ট 1350 , এবং ট্রেন্ড লাইনের Lower Line strong support হিসেবে কাজ করছে। ট্রেন্ড আপ হবার দরুন আশা করছি পেয়ারটি ট্রেন্ড লাইন কে টেস্ট করে আবার আপ হবার সম্ভাবনা অনেক বেশি। ট্রেন্ড লাইনের ব্রেক পেয়ারটিকে পরবর্তী সাপোর্ট 1320 & 1272 কে টেস্ট করা সম্ভাবনা বাড়িয়ে তুলবে।

ডেইলি চার্ট এ Fibo analysis থেকে দেখা যায় 1798 to 1179 এর 38.2% projection থেকে ফিরে আসছে বলে মনে হচ্ছে। তবে যেহেতু আপ ট্রেন্ডে রয়েছে তাই Retracement আশা করছি Fibo 50% near 1488 . 

USD/CHF ডেইলি আউটলুক ২১ অগাস্ট ২০১৩

USD/CHF এর আউটলুকে বলা যায় পেয়ারটিতে Deeper Decline দেখা যেতে পারে। পেয়ারটি Previous Low 0.9173 কে ব্রেক করেছে তবে এখনো সাপোর্ট 0.9130

break হয় নাই। কিন্তু মার্কেট মুভমেন্ট Strong bearish থাকায় আশা করছি সেটাও ব্রেক করতে পারে, টার্গেট 0.9021 এরিয়া। Upside এ Resistance 0.9396 এর ব্রেক হলে কারেন্ট প্রাইসের কাছে বোটম তৈরি হবার সিগন্যাল পাওয়া যাবে otherwise movement will stay bearish !

Weekly অউটলুক ৮ এপ্রিল থেকে ১২ এপ্রিল ২০১৩

EUR/USD

গত সপ্তাহে EUR/USD নতুন Lower Low 1.2746 প্রাইসে করলেও খুব শক্তিশালী একটা Rebound মার্কেটে দেখা গিয়েছে। মার্কেট 1.3000 প্রাইসের Psychological Level পার করেছে এবং ক্লোজিং প্রাইস 1.2900 প্রাইস। তবে মার্কেট মুভমেন্ট দেখে বঝা যাচ্ছে  পেয়ারটি 1.2746 প্রাইসে বোটম তৈরি করেছে।  Fibo 38.2 % এখনো টেস্ট না করায় পরবর্তীতে প্রাইসের আরও Upside মুভমেন্ট এর সম্ভাবনা থেকে যাচ্ছে। Resistance আছে 1.3114 প্রাইসে High 1.3710 থেকে  low 1.2746 . এই Resistance এর ক্লিয়ার ব্রেক হলে পরবর্তীতে প্রাইসের টার্গেট হতে পারে 61.8% 1.3342 প্রাইসে। অপরদিকে সাপোর্ট রয়েছে 1.2900 প্রাইসে এর ব্রেক সকল বিতর্কের অবসান ঘটিয়ে মার্কেটকে আবার 1.2661 কী সাপোর্ট লেভেলে নিয়ে যেতে পারে। 

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GBP/USD

 

1.4830 প্রাইস থেকে Rebound করে New High 1.5363 প্রাইসে তৈরি করেছে।  এই সপ্তাহে আশা করা হচ্ছে প্রাইস মুভমেন্ট আপ সাইডে থাকবে। তবে যদি এটাকে ডাঊন ট্রেন্ড Consolidation ধরে নিই তবে 38.2 % 1.5422 প্রাইস Fibo Strong Resistance এর কাজ করতে পারে [ high 1.6380 to low 1.4830] এবং প্রাইস ফিরে আসতে পারে আবার 1.4830 লেভেলে তবে এর পূর্বে মাইনর সাপোর্ট 1.5198 এর ব্রেক প্রয়োজন এর পরের সাপোর্ট রয়েছে 1.5032. অপরদিকে 38.2% [1.5422]  এর ব্রেক হলে প্রাইসের পরবর্তী টার্গেট হতে পারে 1.5788 [ Fibo 61.8%]. 

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USD/JPY

 

USD/JPY পেয়ার তার আপ ট্রেন্ড Resume করেছে বলে হচ্ছে। পেয়ারটি 96.70 প্রাইসের থাকা Higher High কে ব্রেক করে New Higher 97.83 প্রাইসে তৈরি করেছে এবং আশা করছি পরবর্তীতে পেয়ারটির টার্গেট হতে পারে 100.00 Psychological লেভেল। এছাড়াও Fibo 161.8% Projection [ 90.88 to 96.70]  টার্গেট করে 100.00 level. অপরদিকে মাইনর সাপোর্ট 95.74 এর ব্রেক প্রাইস মুভমেন্টকে Neutral করবে।  এবং মার্কেটে Consolidation দেখা যেতে পারে।  তবে ডাউন ট্রেন্ড শুরু হবার জন্য প্রয়োজন 92.56 এর ক্লিয়ার ব্রেক নয়ত পেয়ার টি পূর্বের মত একটা রেঞ্জ এর মধ্যে উথা নামা করবে।  সব মিলিয়ে বলা যায় USD/JPY মুভমেন্ট এই সপ্তাহে বুলিশ থাকবে বলে আশা করছি। 

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USD/CHF

 

গত সপ্তাহে USD/CHF পেয়ারটি 0.9352 এর সাপোর্ট ব্রেক করে  Sharply Decline হয়েছে এবং new Low তৈরি করেছে 0.9344 প্রাইসে। এই অবস্থায় 0.9566 থেকে প্রাইসের Fall কে Consolidation বলা যায় এবং পরবর্তী টার্গেট হতে পারে 50% Retracement 0.9294 প্রাইস [ 0.9021 to 0.9566]. সাপোর্ট 0.9294 এর ব্রেক বেয়ারিশ মুভমেন্ট এর সম্ভাবনা আরও বাড়িয়ে তুলবে বলে আশা করছি এবং পরবর্তী টার্গেট হতে পারে 0.9021 লেভেল।  

source: www.banglaforexschool.com

USD/JPY ডেইলি আউটলুক ৩ এপ্রিল ২০১৩

গত দিনের  মত আজকেও একই কথা বলার আছে USD/JPY এর জন্য। কারন 94.37এর মানর Resistance Intact আছে। Resistance এর ব্রেক প্রাইসকে আবার 96.70 রিটেস্ট করাতে পারে। তবে চার্ট দেখে মনে হচ্ছে পেয়ারটি ফাইনালি ডাউন ট্রেন্ডে রয়েছে( Fibo Fan). তবে 90.85 প্রাইসে strong সাপোর্ট আছে। আপাতত প্রাইস যদি Resistance ব্রেক করতে না পারে তবে আমরা ধারণা করছি বেয়ারিশ মুভমেন্টে থাকবে।

EUR/USD ডেইলি আউটলুক ২ এপ্রিল ২০১৩

4H চার্ট একটু ভালো করে দেখুন পেয়ারটি 1.2751 প্রাইসে মনে হচ্ছে Cycle Bottom তৈরি করেছে বলে মনে হচ্ছে। পরবর্তীতে এই ঊর্ধ্বমুখী যাত্রা হয়তো অব্যাহত থাকতে পারে এবং প্রথম টার্গেট হতে পারে 1.2960 এরিয়া। Key Resistance রয়েছে 1.3000 প্রাইসে। Resistance এর ব্রেক 1.3710 ( Feb 1 High) থেকে শুরু হওয়া ডাউন ট্রেন্ডের কমপ্লিটের সিগন্যাল দিবে। Overall EUR/USD মুভমেন্ট বুলিশ থাকবে বলে আশা করছি। 

GBP/USD ডেইলি আউটলুক ২৮ মার্চ ২০১৩

GBP/USD 4H চার্টে এখন প্রাইস চ্যানেলে সাপোর্টের মুখোমুখি। সেখান থেকে প্রাইস Rebound করে উপরে উঠতে পারে। আরেকটা বিষয় খেয়াল রাখতে হবে Upside এ প্রাইস যদি 1.5185 এর ক্লিয়ার ব্রেক করে তাহলে পরবর্তী টার্গেট হতে পারে 1.5350 zone।  অপর দিকে সাপোর্ট এর ডাউন সাইড এ ক্লিয়ার ব্রেক প্রাইসকে আবার  1.4831 কে টেস্ট করাতে পারে।  সবমিলিয়ে আজকে GBP/USD  বলা যায় একটা কঠিন সময় এর মধ্যে দিয়ে যাচ্ছে তাই বাই সেল অর্ডার ওপেন এর পূর্বে ট্রেডারদেরকে প্রাইস মুভমেন্ট ভালো করে খেয়াল করার অনুরোধ জানাচ্ছি। 

USD/JPY ডেইলি আউটলুক ২৮ মার্চ ২০১৩

USD/JPY 4H চার্টে এখনো Downtrend প্রাইস চ্যানেল এ রয়েছে, এবং 96.70 থেকে এই Downtrend শুরু হয়েছ। যতদিন প্রাইস চ্যানেল এর Upper line এ  Resistance বহাল থাকবে আশা করছি ততদিন ডাউন ট্রেন্ড Continue করবে বলে আশা করছি। এবং পরবর্তী টার্গেট হতে পারে  92.00 -93.00 প্রাইস এরিয়া। অপরদিকে Upside Resistance এর ক্লিয়ার ব্রেক প্রাইসের নতুন ট্রেন্ড শুরু করতে পারে ।

USD/JPY ডেইলি আউটলুক ২৭ মার্চ ২০১৩

USD/JPY এখনো ডাউন ট্রেন্ড এ রয়েছে যা শুরু হয়েছিল 96.70 থেকে। তবে কালকে প্রাইসের কিছুটা উঠে যাওয়াকে Downtrend Consolidation বলা যেতে পারে। Key Resistance 4H চার্টে Upper Trendline এ আছে। তাই Resistance Hold করা পর্যন্ত মার্কেট নিচে যাবে বলে ধারণা করছি। পরবর্তী টার্গেট হতে পারে 92.00 – 93.00 এরিয়া। অপর দিকে Resistance এর ক্লিয়ার ব্রেক ডাউন ট্রেন্ড কমপ্লিট এর সিগন্যাল দিবে এবং নতুন ট্রেন্ড শুরু করবে। 

Forex Daily Analysis 2012-07-05

The holiday in the US influenced the currencies market as the low liquidity blocked some the major currencies' momentum against the USD that took advantage of the situation in order to correct some of the recent declines. Most of the traders in the US extend their vacation to the weekend and will resume to the markets just next week, and this might influence the markets as well. However, the following trading days are full with important indicators that might shakeout the markets.

EUR/USD

Currencies are changing momentums almost every several hours these days, mainly because of the low volatility. Therefore, promising patterns might lead to false-breaks and cause quick losses. This means that the technical analysis could be less accurate than usual and therefore necessary adjustments have to be made. The Euro reached a new weekly low yesterday, as the descending triangle pattern was built above the support at 1.24. A break-down of this pattern will probably take the Euro down to the annual low at 1.2287. The reason for this bearish momentum could be the markets' expectations for a lower interest rate announcement today by the European central bank. However, the ECB press conference might have a positive influence on the Euro if the investors get positive signals from the central bank. Either way, the market tend to be extremely volatile during such significant announcements and trading during the moments of the declaration includes high risk.

GBP/USD

The pound fell under Monday's low and triggered many selling orders that pulled it 100 pips down. The currency got the resistance of the downtrend line and created a triangle pattern in the daily chart. This triangle is neither descending nor ascending, which means that there is a strong conflict between the buyers and the sellers. In such cases, the technical trader has to get prepared for both scenarios of break-up and break-down. According to the current momentum, it looks like the pound is going to slide to the support of the uptrend line at 1.5520, as a strong break-down of this support might pull it down to 1.54. Nevertheless, the pound might continue moving between the triangle's edges until it breaks on of them. The official bank rate is published today in Britain, 45 minutes before the European, as a positive reaction by the investors might launch the pound towards the 200 SMA at 1.5750.

OIL

The price of the crude oil reached a psychological of $80 support last week and started correcting up since then. The sanctions against Iran's oil contributed to the speculations regarding the oil's prices and the traders took advantage of that. The oil rose 10% since last week and the weekly charts shows that the oil has risen over 20% on the last couple of times that it reached this support. This means that the current bullish correction might lift it up towards $100. However, if the oil makes the bearish reversal, successful break-down this time might pull it down to the level of $70.

Forex Daily Analysis 2012-03-16

Improving economic data supported the US stock markets that closed another green trading-day yesterday. Continuing jobless claims were 351K, lower than analysts' consensus of 354K claims. Philly manufacturing index, which indicates the activity of the manufacturing sector, was higher than expectations as well. Today are published the core CPI M/M & consumer sentiment.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar reached the target we set for the break-down of the support at 1.06, which was the 200 SMA, around 1.04. As we estimated, the break-down of this level caused significant declines and the support appeared around the 200 SMA, which is an indicator that many investors use. The support occurred close to the 50% Fibonacci level, which means that a bullish reversal might start from this point. Stochastic oscillator levels are showing oversold situation, and this supports the possibility for a bullish reversal by the Aussie that might retest the break-down level at 1.06.

AUD/CAD
Most of the major currencies got stronger against the USD yesterday, but the CAD did not make a significant change against the American dollar. The pair USD/CAD is consolidating around 0.99 and it is not clear whether the bears or the bulls have the upper hand now.
The fact that the CAD is stamping versus the USD, helps the AUD to rise against it, after few weeks of heavy sales in the pair AUD/CAD. The pair blocked by the 200 SMA and if this support lasts, the AUD might correct up to 1.055-1.06 and even higher.

EUR/GBP
Both EUR & GBP are traded around strong supports against the USD. The EUR gets support at 1.30, might continue to 1.315-1.32, whereas the GBP has support at 1.565, and might rise to 1.58.
The pair has been moving through a narrow channel and we analyze it each time the pair touches one of the channel's boundaries. Two weeks ago, when the pair traded a little bit higher that 0.83, we brought up the trade idea of trying to take it up to 0.84 and the trade worked exactly as we planned. The pair is close to 0.83 again and if the current pattern remains, the pair will rise towards 0.84. However, a powerful movement of the GBP might cause a break-down of the support and take it down to 0.82.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

FOREX Daily Analysis 2012-03-08

As we estimated, the US stock market made the bullish correction to the declines from the beginning of the week, and those who expected to see a crashing of the stock got the exact opposite. Wall Street can easily slide to the bearish momentum again but the most important thing here to understand is that the general trend is still bullish, which means that those who missed the rally might buy stocks after the slightest correction.
EUR/USD
The next two days are full with important economic data as today is published the European interest rate, which expected to remain at 1.0% and the investors will look forward to the ECB press conference.
The risings in Wall Street helped the Euro that found a support at 1.31, and if the investors like what they hear from the ECB president, the currency might jump to the resistance at 1.325. However, a break-down of yesterday's low could take the pair under 1.30.

EUR/GBP
The pound failed in breaking through the 200 SMA on Tuesday and the sharp declines in Wall Street that day, pulled the pound down to 1.57. The British currency corrected yesterday and the MPC rate statement today will influence its direction today.
Both EUR & GBP are moving in the same trend versus the USD and therefore the pair EUR/GBP has been stamping in the last couple of months. The pair is approaching the resistance at 0.84, which it broke last month but fell under it few days after the break-up. According to this pattern, the pair supposed to rise to 0.84 and try to break it through again. However, if the pound gets extremely stronger and the pair breaks down the support at 0.83, it might slide towards 0.82.

USD/CAD
The pair reached the target we set at the psychological number 1.0 and the strengthening of the USD has stopped due to the bullish correction of the stocks. The interest rate is published today in Canada, 30 minutes after the ECB press conference begins and like the other interest rates that are published today the Canadian interest is expected to remain unchanged. If the USD continues strengthening against the CAD and overcomes the resistance at 1.0 then the price might reach 1.015. However, if the bearish reversal occurs, the price might fall back to 0.98 again.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Forex Daily Analysis 2012-03-05

Wall Street closed another green trading week as NASDAQ kept setting new highs, S&P 500 crossed above the important level of 1370 points, though eventually it closed under this resistance. The rising came on the background of improving economic data as GDP showed an annual growth of 3% and continuing jobless claims fell to new low.

This week was extremely volatile in the commodities market as oil prices touched the level of $110 after rumors regarding attack on one of Saudi Arabia important oil fields, but the largest oil producer denied the rumors and the oil closed around $106 on Friday. The precious metals were also on the center after Bernanke said that the price of $1800 for an ounce of gold reflects a bubble and caused heavy sales of the metal that shed $80 that day. The silver also influenced by the events and fell nearly 10% during Wednesday.

EUR/USD

Europe got some encouraging events during the last two-weeks and after the Greece crisis seemed to be calmed for a while, the ECB gave the European banks more than 500 billion Euros in order to ease the credit problem that the banks are having.  The European bid rate published on Thursday and it expected to remain on the current levels. However, as usual, the investors will wait for the ECB press conference to get indication about the economic situation. One of the most important data is published on Friday, which is the employment status in the US - Non Farm payroll change & unemployment rate.

On the technical aspect, in spite the fact the US stock market rose, the EUR loose power against the USD after few weeks of a bullish rally. Stochastic levels are indicating for an overbuying situation, which means that the EUR might correct down to 1.30. However, strong rally in the stocks might help the EUR to resume strengthening.

GBP/USD

The pound made an impressive bullish session after the USD failed in breaking-down the support at 1.565 two weeks ago. The pair made the triple-bottom on the support and reached the target we set for the bullish movement at 1.60. The expected resistance appeared around that levels and heavy selling took the pair down under 1.58. If the USD continues strengthening, the pair might fall to 1.565 again. However, the pair reached Fibonacci levels in which a bullish reversal might occur.

The bank of England will announce the interest rate on Thursday, 45 minutes before the ECB. The bank rate is expected to remain unchanged and the investors will concentrate on the MPC rate statement.  

USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar has been strengthening against the USD for several months and last week the pair broke down the important support at 0.99. However, as it usually happens after break-down or break-ups of extreme levels, the pair did not continue falling and it closed around the break-down level on Friday. A better than expected GDP data published in Canada that day but the general strengthening of the USD prevent the CAD from gaining more power. If the USD continues rising, the pair might reach the 200 SMA and the psychological number 1.0. However, if the bearish reversal occurs around the current level, the CAD might try to slide under 0.98.

The Bank of Canada will publish the interest rate on Thursday, half-hour after the ECB, and the interest rate is expected to remain at 1.0%.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Forex Daily Analysis 2012-02-27

The US stock markets made the unbelievable and completed another green week. Indices rose 0.3% as the S&P 500 is touching the pick at 1370 points and although many analysts estimate that the correction will come soon, there is a good probability that we will see continuation of the rally. Many hedge funds are waiting for a correction of 5%-10% but the indices have traded around the current highs for several days without correcting and this is a sign for another break-up. If the S&P 500 breaks through 1370 points, the hedge funds managers will have no choice but to join the market and this might push the stocks even higher. The main elements that could threat this rally are obviously the European debt problem and the rally of the oil price which is about to cross above 110$.
EUR/USD
The continuation of the strengthening of the stocks weakened the USD against most of the major currencies. Before the previous weeks started, the EUR looked like it was about to correct down, but eventually it opened the week with a gap-up and completed the "cup & handle" pattern under the resistance at 1.33. The EUR successfully broke this pattern and reached the target we set at 1.35 within just two trading days. The next significant resistance is close to the 200 SMA at 1.37, but do not eliminate the option for a bearish correction that will retest 1.33.

GBP/USD
The pound looked extremely weak against the USD on the first days of the previous trading week, but a strong finish took it to the week's height. There was a strong support to the pair at 1.565, which we estimated that a strong break-down of this support would cause sharp declines. However, the support was strong enough and the triple-bottom pattern signaled for the incoming bullish session. The pair broke-through the resistance of the downtrend line and reached the 200 SMA, as a strong break-up of this moving average might take the GBP up to 1.60.

USD/CHF
The CHF broke-down the bearish pattern of the "Head & Shoulders" and might start a significant strengthening movement against the USD. The pair was traded around the support at 0.91 for several weeks and it looked like that each break-down was actually a false-break, but last week the break-down was real and the CHF is already under 0.90 versus the USD. The target for the current session is the 200 SMA at 0.87-0.88.
The main concern of the CHF buyers is an aggressive intervention by the SNB in case the CHF gets too stronger according to the central bank's point of view. This threat definitely real since the SNB has announced before that t would not hesitate to interfere if it needed.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Forex Daily Analysis - Currency Trading News 2012-01-30

The US stock markets closed the week on the mixed territory after a powerful opening of 2012 in which the main indices rose more than 8%. The main reason for this amazing rally is the fact that more than 65% of the largest 500 companies reported better than expected reports regarding the 4^th quarter of 2011. NASDAQ has already broken the height of 2011 and the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 are approaching those picks.
The result season is not over yet and therefore the stocks might keep rising, but it is clear in this point, that a correction will occur soon, and if the indices slide under last week's low, it will be a significant signal for a possible correction.
On the fundamental aspect, the US economy grew 2.8% annual pace in the fourth quarter, which was less than expectations, but showed that the largest economy is on the right track for recovery. In Europe, Greece is still on the center and the agreements with the private sector regarding the haircut are getting close, but Germany put up an obstacle to Greece as it insists to have the ability to interfere in the Greek budget, in case the EU leaders will have to.
EUR/USD
The risings of the stocks brought back the positive correlation between the EUR and the stock markets, after few weeks that the EUR shed points in spite the bullish rally in Wall Street. The pair made an aggressive "short-squeeze" after it broke through the downtrend channel. The EUR overcame the resistance at 1.31 last week and the next target is the former break-down area at 1.335, though the EUR is overbought and might correct down any day.
The Forex market will wait for the NFP & unemployment rate on Friday, which will a significant influence on the USD.

USD/CHF
The CHF, which has been weakening against the USD since August 2011, is trying to show signs that the bullish trend has stopped. The pair made double/triple-top around 0.955-0.96 and started falling when the USD started losing power against the major currencies.  It is interesting to see how this pair acts accurately according to the supports & resistances in the daily chart. The first strong support was at 0.93, which was a break-out area few months ago. The pair broke this important support and many sellers entered the market and pulled the price down to the next strong support at 0.91.
At this point, like other currencies, which made a strengthening movement against the USD, the CHF is overbought and therefore the USD might correct up from the current support. Likewise, the investors should always have in mind the possibility that the SNB will interfere the trading, but if the SNB does not interfere, the pair might continue sliding to the 200 SMA at 0.88.

USD/JPY
The USD made an impressive break-out at 77.30 last Tuesday, which was surprising because it was against the general weakness of the USD against the major currencies. However, the investors chose to take advantage of the situation and heavy sellers took the price back to the support of 76.5. A break-down of this support might slide to the low at 75.5, but the danger of an intervention exists here as well.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Daily Analysis - Forex Currency Trading News 2012-01-18

The US stock market opened the trading week with a bullish momentum, in spite the weakness of the financial sector, which caused by Citigroup's reports that missed analysts' expectations. The stock fell 8% by the end of the day.

The S&P 500 rose tried to break-through the resistance of the round number 1300 points but turned over after a false-break. However, if today's reports of Goldman Sachs bit Wall Street estimations, the S&P might try to break-through 1300 points again.

GBP/USD

The risings in Wall Street helped the GBP to rise until the middle of the day but eventually it resumed falling against the USD on the second half of the day. Today is published the Claimant Count Change data, which will give indication regarding the employment situation in Britain.

Last Friday, we demonstrated how dangerous it was to try opening a short-position under the support of 1.527. The pair made a false-break and started correcting up almost 150 pips, which probably stressed many armatures that had to close their losing positions.  The recent candlesticks have up-tails, which indicated that a bearish reversal might occur around these levels. Therefore, a break-down of 1.53 might be a second attempt of breaking down the daily low, on the way to 1.50.

EUR/NZD

The pair EUR/USD reached the lower boundary of the channel that we analyzed on the weekly analysis and it made the expected correction there. However, the NZD keeps strengthening against the USD and therefore the pair EUR/NZD remains in the downtrend.

The pair is obviously oversold and it might make an aggressive short-squeeze, if it breaks-through 1.60. However, the Kiwi is in a middle of a powerful momentum against most of the currencies, so the pair might break the support of 1.59 and fall to 1.57 or even below that.

NZD/JPY

This pair's daily chart reminds the daily chart of the NZD/USD. The reason for this is the fact that the JPY is stamping against the USD and the NZD is strengthening against it. The outcome is a very similar daily chart of the NZD/JPY and the NZD/USD, which will continue to remain similar until the Yen makes any significant movement.

The pair broker through the bullish pattern of the "cup & handle" at 61.0 and it is heading towards the 200 SMA at 63.0. The 20 EMA crossed above the 50 EMA, which is a strong bullish signal for the NZD against the JPY.

Today is published the important data of the CPI in New Zealand, which might affect the NZD's pairs during the day.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

USD/JPY Intraday Technical Level For January 12nd / 2012

TODAY  TECHNICAL  LEVEL :

Resistance. 3 : 77.25.
Resistance. 2 : 77.10.
Resistance. 1 : 76.95.
Support. 1 : 76.76.
Support. 2 : 76.61.
Support. 3 : 76.46.

DESCRIPTION :

Please note for the levels of support. 3 (76.46) and Resistance. 3 (77.25), generally when a level is touched, the USD/JPY will turn around the opposite direction from the previous minimum of 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are managed on a breakout over 50 pips then it would be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

USD/JPY Intraday Technical Level For January 9th / 2012

TODAY  TECHNICAL  LEVEL :

Resistance. 3 : 77.35.
Resistance. 2 : 77.20.
Resistance. 1 : 77.04.
Support. 1 : 76.86.
Support. 2 : 76.70.
Support. 3 : 76.55.

DESCRIPTION :

Please note for the levels of support. 3 (76.55) and Resistance. 3 (77.35), generally when a level is touched, the USD/JPY will turn around the opposite direction from the previous minimum of 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are managed on a breakout over 50 pips then it would be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Level For January 9th / 2012

TODAY  TECHNICAL  LEVEL :

Breakout BUY Level : 1.2749.
Strong Resistance : 1.2741.
Original Resistance : 1.2730.
Inner Sell Area : 1.2718.
Target Inner Area : 1.2688.
Inner Buy Area : 1.2658.
Original Support : 1.2646.
Strong Support : 1.2634.
Breakout SELL Level : 1.2629.

DESCRIPTION :

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.2646 and 1.2730 is accompanied by a strong support at 1.2634 and 1.2741 for the strong resistance; If today the EUR/USD can break out and close below the 1.2629 level then this indicates considerable Bearish strength, while if the EUR/USD today can break out and close above the 1.2749 level then this indicates considerable Bullish strength. Alternatively you can trade in a way to open BUY position at the level of 1.2658 and 1.2718 for SELL position in which case both targets are located at the 1.2688 level.

EUR/USD: Weekly Technical Levels for January 9 - 13, 2012.

Weekly Technical Levels:

Tip (s):

R3 and S3 are good indication for the maximum range for extremely volatile days but can be exceeded occasionally.
Pivot lines work well in sideways markets as prices will most likely range between the R1 and S1 line.
In a strong trend, price will be low through a pivot point line and keep going.
If there is significant news to influence the market price may go straight through R1 or S1 and reach even R2 & R3 or S2 & S3.

Time Frame: H1.

Drag your Fibonacci retracement levels from the lower to the higher of the last week from 2^nd of January to 6^th of January, 2011 in order to determine low and high price.

Average = (Higher - Lower) / 2
Average = 1.2887

• Range was: 381 pips.
• The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is: 1.2887.
• 1.32 will be formed a strong resistance.
• 1.25 will be formed a strong support.
• Volatility is 409.00 so the market has called for a high volatile.
• It should be noted that the price has still been trapped between 1.26 and 1.32.

Observation (s):

• If the strength of the trend for pair is an uptrend, then the strength of the currency: EUR is an uptrend and USD is a downtrend.
• Most of traders use the Fibonacci retracement to determine accurate psychology level of support and resistance.
  
• Volatility Formulas: Variation = Average * (Higher - Lower).