FOREX Daily Analysis - Currency Trading News 2012-02-01

Wall Street is starting to show more and more signals that a correction is about to come. Yesterday, the major indices open the trading day almost 1% up, but started falling after the release of the disappointing consumer confidence data. In total, January was the best month in the US stock markets since 1997, as they rose 10% during the month.
EUR/USD
The declines in the stock markets supported the USD against the major currencies, and the euro slid against the American dollar yesterday. The Greek problem has not been solved yet and this affects the EUR, which started correcting down since it reached the pick at 1.323 on Friday. The USD's correction will be determined by the employment data flow, which starts today with the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and end with the official NFP on Friday.
On the technical aspect, the EUR is obviously overbought and the correction down might erase 30%-50% of the recent rally and therefore the Euro might retest 1.30 or even lower.

EUR/GBP
The GBP completed an amazing bullish session against the USD, which started on the middle of the month. This movement started as a "short-squeeze" that turned into a strong rally, in which the pound gained almost 500 pips against the USD. Now it is facing a resistance at 1.57 and might correct down from the current levels.
Both Euro and GBP rose sharply against the USD since the beginning of the month, though the EUR was relatively stronger and therefore the pair EUR/GBP rose as well. However, the general trend of this pair is bearish, so the GBP was likely to get stronger again against the EUR, as it did in the recent couple of days. The GBP broke the support of the channel and if it succeeds in completing the break-down, the price might fall to 0.82.

NZD/CHF
The NZD dollar does not stop strengthening against most of the currencies. Yesterday it looked like that the USD was about to correct against the NZD but the Kiwi made another wide bullish candlestick. On the other hand, the USD found a support against the CHF, and that give the NZD the ability to rise even more against the CHF. The current resistance is at 0.76 and a break-up there will be another step to the heights at 0.78.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Forex Daily Analysis - Currency Trading News 2012-01-31

The US stock market opened the trading week on a mixed territory but with strong signals for a positive continuation. The indices opened the trading day more than 0.5% but started rising after the first hour. Eventually, NASDAQ was the only major index to close in the positive territory.
AUD/USD
Since the Aussie broke through the resistance of the 200 SMA at 1.04, the Australian dollar gained almost 300 pips before it reached the resistance of the round number 1.07. The higher-lows pattern that occurred under the 200 SMA suggested that there was a strong pressure of buyers under these, and it was a great trade for those who implemented this trade idea. Now the price is close to the resistance in the daily chart at 1.075 and a strong break-out there will trigger many automatic orders that might launch the Aussie to the historical heights at 1.108. However, the pair is obviously overbought so it might correct down and retest the 200 SMA.

NZD/USD
The Kiwi is following its Australian neighbor as it also made an impressive break-up of the 200 SMA at 0.80. However, the bullish session started much sooner when the NZD broke-through the resistance at 0.78. Strong buyers entered the market during that break-up and lifted the pair up to its current levels at 0.82. The pair is now facing the resistance at 0.825, but an entry here, when the pair is overbought, is extremely dangerous. Opening a position in such extreme point is an opportunity for the pros to take advantage of the amateurs, and therefore it would be wisely to wait for correction down before opening a long position. Such a correction might occur if the price crosses below yesterday's bottom, and can reach Fibonacci 50% levels around the 200 SMA at 0.80.

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AUD/NZD
As we see many times, when two currencies are getting stronger against the USD, the cross of them does not show a clear trend.  The weekly chart shows that the level of 1.285 is a pivot point in an accurate triangle. The simultaneous pressure of both buyers and sellers creates this pattern, and stochastic high levels show that the pair might continue down from the current levels, though the direction might still change due to the strength of these two powerful currencies.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Forex Daily Analysis - Currency Trading News 2012-01-30

The US stock markets closed the week on the mixed territory after a powerful opening of 2012 in which the main indices rose more than 8%. The main reason for this amazing rally is the fact that more than 65% of the largest 500 companies reported better than expected reports regarding the 4^th quarter of 2011. NASDAQ has already broken the height of 2011 and the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 are approaching those picks.
The result season is not over yet and therefore the stocks might keep rising, but it is clear in this point, that a correction will occur soon, and if the indices slide under last week's low, it will be a significant signal for a possible correction.
On the fundamental aspect, the US economy grew 2.8% annual pace in the fourth quarter, which was less than expectations, but showed that the largest economy is on the right track for recovery. In Europe, Greece is still on the center and the agreements with the private sector regarding the haircut are getting close, but Germany put up an obstacle to Greece as it insists to have the ability to interfere in the Greek budget, in case the EU leaders will have to.
EUR/USD
The risings of the stocks brought back the positive correlation between the EUR and the stock markets, after few weeks that the EUR shed points in spite the bullish rally in Wall Street. The pair made an aggressive "short-squeeze" after it broke through the downtrend channel. The EUR overcame the resistance at 1.31 last week and the next target is the former break-down area at 1.335, though the EUR is overbought and might correct down any day.
The Forex market will wait for the NFP & unemployment rate on Friday, which will a significant influence on the USD.

USD/CHF
The CHF, which has been weakening against the USD since August 2011, is trying to show signs that the bullish trend has stopped. The pair made double/triple-top around 0.955-0.96 and started falling when the USD started losing power against the major currencies.  It is interesting to see how this pair acts accurately according to the supports & resistances in the daily chart. The first strong support was at 0.93, which was a break-out area few months ago. The pair broke this important support and many sellers entered the market and pulled the price down to the next strong support at 0.91.
At this point, like other currencies, which made a strengthening movement against the USD, the CHF is overbought and therefore the USD might correct up from the current support. Likewise, the investors should always have in mind the possibility that the SNB will interfere the trading, but if the SNB does not interfere, the pair might continue sliding to the 200 SMA at 0.88.

USD/JPY
The USD made an impressive break-out at 77.30 last Tuesday, which was surprising because it was against the general weakness of the USD against the major currencies. However, the investors chose to take advantage of the situation and heavy sellers took the price back to the support of 76.5. A break-down of this support might slide to the low at 75.5, but the danger of an intervention exists here as well.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Daily Analysis - Forex Currency Trading News 2012-01-25

The low volatility in the US stock markets continued yesterday and will probably remain narrow until the FOMC rate statement on the second part of today's trading session. The interest level is expected to be unchanged, but the investors will hope to find out about new plans for creating new jobs.

The interest rate in New Zealand is published today as well.

EUR/USD

Greece is close to get the final agreement on the haircut of the private sector's debts, and with the positive atmosphere in the stock markets in both US & Europe, the Euro is continuing its recovering that started last week, when the pair broke-out the downtrend channel. The "short-squeeze" is strong as we estimated and the Euro easily crossed the first target at 1.30 on its way to 1.31. A break-up of this resistance, which might occur during the interest announcement, can lift the price up to 1.33-1.335 in the next few days. On the other hand, indicators show that the pair is overbought and therefore a bearish reversal might occur around 1.305-1.31.

USD/JPY

The USD made a strong break-out against the Japanese Yen yesterday and almost reached the target we set for this potential break-up, at 78.0. We analyzed the pair several time during the recent weeks and we mentioned the level of 77.0 as an important level that if the USD breaks it, many automatic orders will be triggered. This estimation turned to be a fact and the pair acted according to the analysis. However, it is important to understand that in all of the recent analysis we mentioned the level of 76.5 as a possible break-down level. This is important to clarify because the technical trader should not analyze one direction only, but he must be prepared for both scenarios.

CAD/JPY

The CAD broke the triangle pattern it had on the daily chart with the USD, but the correction of the USD yesterday pulled the price back to the triangle's zone, so the break-down cannot be declared as successful yet. However, the weakening of the Yen against the USD reflects in most of the other major currencies, including the CAD. The pair is now facing the resistance at 77.0, in which it failed to break several time in the past five months. Therefore, there is a good probability that it will fail again, but if it does manage to break-out, the pair might reach the 200 SMA at 79.0.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Daily Market Overview: USD/JPY 2012-01-24

Daily maximum: 77.85

Daily minimum: 76.96

After touching the daily forecast mean at 76.99, USD/JPY moved upwards after the Richmond Manufacturing Index rose more than expected.

Daily Resistance: 77.11; 77.20; 77.33.
Daily Support: 76.89; 76.76; 76.67.
Daily Bias: Neutral.

Daily Market Overview: USD/CHF 2012-01-24

Daily maximum: 0.9311

Daily minimum: 0.9235

The Swiss Franc continued appreciating versus the American dollar as the economic outlook in Europe improves, causing the daily target at 0.9293.

Daily Resistance: 0.9351; 0.9429; 0.9479.
Daily Support: 0.9223; 0.9173; 0.9095.
Daily Bias: Bearish.

Daily Analysis - Forex Currency Trading News 2012-01-24

The US stock markets opened the first day of the trading-week with strong risings but the expected realizations pulled the stocks down. Many investors and analysts are looking for an aggressive correction, which might start if the main indices slide under yesterday's low. However, this is the results season, which means that surprising reports can bit any technical analysis that says that the markets are overbought, and we might see the stocks keep risings.
USD/CAD
The pair has changed its direction several times in the past 3 months. Unlike the other currencies, the CAD stood up against the strong momentum of the USD and it managed to correct after each rally of the USD. The simultaneous pressure of both buyers and sellers created an accurate triangle pattern in the daily chart, which looks like the pair has decided to break it. The break-down of the lower edge of the triangle is not completed yet, and the USD might take it back into the triangle's zone. However, the pair did broke the important support of 1.01 and a break-down of the psychological number 1.0 might pull the price down to the 200 SMA at 0.99-0.995.

EUR/GBP
The EUR/USD successfully broke the channel and reached the first target we set at 1.30. The next resistance for the EUR would be at 1.31. The "short-squeeze" in the GBP/USD continues powerfully and the pair crossed the target we set for this correction, at 1.55.
The strengthening of both EUR and GBP caused the pair EUR/GBP to be more volatile than the average, but it looks like the Euro has more to correct against the GBP. The current resistance is at 0.837 and a strong break-up might take the price up to 0.85. Pay attention to stochastic high levels, which indicate that the pair is overbought and might resume declining again from the current levels.

GBP/CHF
We analyzed the Swiss Franc yesterday and estimated that if it breaks-down the support at 0.93 against the USD, it might start a strengthening session against the USD. The CHF did break that support and might get stronger against the other major currencies. The GBP continues its correction against the USD as well, so it could be harder for the CHF to rise against the pound. The daily chart of the GBP/CHF looks similar to the USD/CHF so this might indicate the CHF will overcome the strengthening of the GBP if it rises against the USD.
The pair is now dealing with the support of the former break-out level at 1.445 and it might slide to 1.42 if it successfully breaks-down this support.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above