FOREX Daily Analysis - Currency Trading News 2012-02-01

Wall Street is starting to show more and more signals that a correction is about to come. Yesterday, the major indices open the trading day almost 1% up, but started falling after the release of the disappointing consumer confidence data. In total, January was the best month in the US stock markets since 1997, as they rose 10% during the month.
EUR/USD
The declines in the stock markets supported the USD against the major currencies, and the euro slid against the American dollar yesterday. The Greek problem has not been solved yet and this affects the EUR, which started correcting down since it reached the pick at 1.323 on Friday. The USD's correction will be determined by the employment data flow, which starts today with the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and end with the official NFP on Friday.
On the technical aspect, the EUR is obviously overbought and the correction down might erase 30%-50% of the recent rally and therefore the Euro might retest 1.30 or even lower.

EUR/GBP
The GBP completed an amazing bullish session against the USD, which started on the middle of the month. This movement started as a "short-squeeze" that turned into a strong rally, in which the pound gained almost 500 pips against the USD. Now it is facing a resistance at 1.57 and might correct down from the current levels.
Both Euro and GBP rose sharply against the USD since the beginning of the month, though the EUR was relatively stronger and therefore the pair EUR/GBP rose as well. However, the general trend of this pair is bearish, so the GBP was likely to get stronger again against the EUR, as it did in the recent couple of days. The GBP broke the support of the channel and if it succeeds in completing the break-down, the price might fall to 0.82.

NZD/CHF
The NZD dollar does not stop strengthening against most of the currencies. Yesterday it looked like that the USD was about to correct against the NZD but the Kiwi made another wide bullish candlestick. On the other hand, the USD found a support against the CHF, and that give the NZD the ability to rise even more against the CHF. The current resistance is at 0.76 and a break-up there will be another step to the heights at 0.78.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Forex Daily Analysis - Currency Trading News 2012-01-31

The US stock market opened the trading week on a mixed territory but with strong signals for a positive continuation. The indices opened the trading day more than 0.5% but started rising after the first hour. Eventually, NASDAQ was the only major index to close in the positive territory.
AUD/USD
Since the Aussie broke through the resistance of the 200 SMA at 1.04, the Australian dollar gained almost 300 pips before it reached the resistance of the round number 1.07. The higher-lows pattern that occurred under the 200 SMA suggested that there was a strong pressure of buyers under these, and it was a great trade for those who implemented this trade idea. Now the price is close to the resistance in the daily chart at 1.075 and a strong break-out there will trigger many automatic orders that might launch the Aussie to the historical heights at 1.108. However, the pair is obviously overbought so it might correct down and retest the 200 SMA.

NZD/USD
The Kiwi is following its Australian neighbor as it also made an impressive break-up of the 200 SMA at 0.80. However, the bullish session started much sooner when the NZD broke-through the resistance at 0.78. Strong buyers entered the market during that break-up and lifted the pair up to its current levels at 0.82. The pair is now facing the resistance at 0.825, but an entry here, when the pair is overbought, is extremely dangerous. Opening a position in such extreme point is an opportunity for the pros to take advantage of the amateurs, and therefore it would be wisely to wait for correction down before opening a long position. Such a correction might occur if the price crosses below yesterday's bottom, and can reach Fibonacci 50% levels around the 200 SMA at 0.80.

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AUD/NZD
As we see many times, when two currencies are getting stronger against the USD, the cross of them does not show a clear trend.  The weekly chart shows that the level of 1.285 is a pivot point in an accurate triangle. The simultaneous pressure of both buyers and sellers creates this pattern, and stochastic high levels show that the pair might continue down from the current levels, though the direction might still change due to the strength of these two powerful currencies.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Forex Daily Analysis - Currency Trading News 2012-01-30

The US stock markets closed the week on the mixed territory after a powerful opening of 2012 in which the main indices rose more than 8%. The main reason for this amazing rally is the fact that more than 65% of the largest 500 companies reported better than expected reports regarding the 4^th quarter of 2011. NASDAQ has already broken the height of 2011 and the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 are approaching those picks.
The result season is not over yet and therefore the stocks might keep rising, but it is clear in this point, that a correction will occur soon, and if the indices slide under last week's low, it will be a significant signal for a possible correction.
On the fundamental aspect, the US economy grew 2.8% annual pace in the fourth quarter, which was less than expectations, but showed that the largest economy is on the right track for recovery. In Europe, Greece is still on the center and the agreements with the private sector regarding the haircut are getting close, but Germany put up an obstacle to Greece as it insists to have the ability to interfere in the Greek budget, in case the EU leaders will have to.
EUR/USD
The risings of the stocks brought back the positive correlation between the EUR and the stock markets, after few weeks that the EUR shed points in spite the bullish rally in Wall Street. The pair made an aggressive "short-squeeze" after it broke through the downtrend channel. The EUR overcame the resistance at 1.31 last week and the next target is the former break-down area at 1.335, though the EUR is overbought and might correct down any day.
The Forex market will wait for the NFP & unemployment rate on Friday, which will a significant influence on the USD.

USD/CHF
The CHF, which has been weakening against the USD since August 2011, is trying to show signs that the bullish trend has stopped. The pair made double/triple-top around 0.955-0.96 and started falling when the USD started losing power against the major currencies.  It is interesting to see how this pair acts accurately according to the supports & resistances in the daily chart. The first strong support was at 0.93, which was a break-out area few months ago. The pair broke this important support and many sellers entered the market and pulled the price down to the next strong support at 0.91.
At this point, like other currencies, which made a strengthening movement against the USD, the CHF is overbought and therefore the USD might correct up from the current support. Likewise, the investors should always have in mind the possibility that the SNB will interfere the trading, but if the SNB does not interfere, the pair might continue sliding to the 200 SMA at 0.88.

USD/JPY
The USD made an impressive break-out at 77.30 last Tuesday, which was surprising because it was against the general weakness of the USD against the major currencies. However, the investors chose to take advantage of the situation and heavy sellers took the price back to the support of 76.5. A break-down of this support might slide to the low at 75.5, but the danger of an intervention exists here as well.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Daily Analysis - Forex Currency Trading News 2012-01-25

The low volatility in the US stock markets continued yesterday and will probably remain narrow until the FOMC rate statement on the second part of today's trading session. The interest level is expected to be unchanged, but the investors will hope to find out about new plans for creating new jobs.

The interest rate in New Zealand is published today as well.

EUR/USD

Greece is close to get the final agreement on the haircut of the private sector's debts, and with the positive atmosphere in the stock markets in both US & Europe, the Euro is continuing its recovering that started last week, when the pair broke-out the downtrend channel. The "short-squeeze" is strong as we estimated and the Euro easily crossed the first target at 1.30 on its way to 1.31. A break-up of this resistance, which might occur during the interest announcement, can lift the price up to 1.33-1.335 in the next few days. On the other hand, indicators show that the pair is overbought and therefore a bearish reversal might occur around 1.305-1.31.

USD/JPY

The USD made a strong break-out against the Japanese Yen yesterday and almost reached the target we set for this potential break-up, at 78.0. We analyzed the pair several time during the recent weeks and we mentioned the level of 77.0 as an important level that if the USD breaks it, many automatic orders will be triggered. This estimation turned to be a fact and the pair acted according to the analysis. However, it is important to understand that in all of the recent analysis we mentioned the level of 76.5 as a possible break-down level. This is important to clarify because the technical trader should not analyze one direction only, but he must be prepared for both scenarios.

CAD/JPY

The CAD broke the triangle pattern it had on the daily chart with the USD, but the correction of the USD yesterday pulled the price back to the triangle's zone, so the break-down cannot be declared as successful yet. However, the weakening of the Yen against the USD reflects in most of the other major currencies, including the CAD. The pair is now facing the resistance at 77.0, in which it failed to break several time in the past five months. Therefore, there is a good probability that it will fail again, but if it does manage to break-out, the pair might reach the 200 SMA at 79.0.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Daily Market Overview: USD/JPY 2012-01-24

Daily maximum: 77.85

Daily minimum: 76.96

After touching the daily forecast mean at 76.99, USD/JPY moved upwards after the Richmond Manufacturing Index rose more than expected.

Daily Resistance: 77.11; 77.20; 77.33.
Daily Support: 76.89; 76.76; 76.67.
Daily Bias: Neutral.

Daily Market Overview: USD/CHF 2012-01-24

Daily maximum: 0.9311

Daily minimum: 0.9235

The Swiss Franc continued appreciating versus the American dollar as the economic outlook in Europe improves, causing the daily target at 0.9293.

Daily Resistance: 0.9351; 0.9429; 0.9479.
Daily Support: 0.9223; 0.9173; 0.9095.
Daily Bias: Bearish.

Daily Analysis - Forex Currency Trading News 2012-01-24

The US stock markets opened the first day of the trading-week with strong risings but the expected realizations pulled the stocks down. Many investors and analysts are looking for an aggressive correction, which might start if the main indices slide under yesterday's low. However, this is the results season, which means that surprising reports can bit any technical analysis that says that the markets are overbought, and we might see the stocks keep risings.
USD/CAD
The pair has changed its direction several times in the past 3 months. Unlike the other currencies, the CAD stood up against the strong momentum of the USD and it managed to correct after each rally of the USD. The simultaneous pressure of both buyers and sellers created an accurate triangle pattern in the daily chart, which looks like the pair has decided to break it. The break-down of the lower edge of the triangle is not completed yet, and the USD might take it back into the triangle's zone. However, the pair did broke the important support of 1.01 and a break-down of the psychological number 1.0 might pull the price down to the 200 SMA at 0.99-0.995.

EUR/GBP
The EUR/USD successfully broke the channel and reached the first target we set at 1.30. The next resistance for the EUR would be at 1.31. The "short-squeeze" in the GBP/USD continues powerfully and the pair crossed the target we set for this correction, at 1.55.
The strengthening of both EUR and GBP caused the pair EUR/GBP to be more volatile than the average, but it looks like the Euro has more to correct against the GBP. The current resistance is at 0.837 and a strong break-up might take the price up to 0.85. Pay attention to stochastic high levels, which indicate that the pair is overbought and might resume declining again from the current levels.

GBP/CHF
We analyzed the Swiss Franc yesterday and estimated that if it breaks-down the support at 0.93 against the USD, it might start a strengthening session against the USD. The CHF did break that support and might get stronger against the other major currencies. The GBP continues its correction against the USD as well, so it could be harder for the CHF to rise against the pound. The daily chart of the GBP/CHF looks similar to the USD/CHF so this might indicate the CHF will overcome the strengthening of the GBP if it rises against the USD.
The pair is now dealing with the support of the former break-out level at 1.445 and it might slide to 1.42 if it successfully breaks-down this support.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Daily Analysis - Forex Currency Trading News 2012-01-19

The results season is accelerating and pushing Wall Street to new highs, as Goldman Sachs (GS) bit analysts expectations and rose 7% yesterday. The S&P 500 made another attempt of breaking-through the level of 1300 points, which was better than the previous attempt on Tuesday, and if today's reports of Google and Intel bit Wall Street, the S&P might continue the bullish momentum towards 1330 points.
EUR/USD
The US stock markets and the USD usually have a negative correlation but it has been a positive correlation in the recent weeks. Yesterday, the risings of the stocks weakened the American dollar against most of the major currencies, and this might signal that the correlation is negative again.
The Euro reached the lower boundary of the channel, which we have been analyzing for several weeks, and made the expected correction towards the upper boundary that is now resisting the pair at 1.285. The Greek haircut of the private sector also supported the Euro and if a short-squeeze begins here, the price might jump to 1.305-1.31.

GOLD
Two weeks ago, we analyzed the precious metals and we estimated that they would continue the bullish momentum from the end of 2011. The gold traded around the 200 SMA then and we estimated that the level of $1600 was an important support for the metal. The gold slid to this level, which was as strong as we expected, and a bullish reversal occurred there. The metal eventually broke through the 200 SMA, which became a support, and it is now dealing with the resistance of the level of $1667, which was a break-down level two months ago.
If the resistance is too strong and the gold fails in breaking it through, the metal can slide to the level of $1600 again. However, a break-up of the current resistance might lift the gold's price up to $1730.

Silver
On the beginning of December, we suggested a short-trade in case of a break-down of the "head & shoulders" pattern at $31. The break-down was as strong as we estimated and those who implemented this trade idea enjoyed declines of 15% in the silver's price. The metal set a bottom at $26.13 on the last week of last years, and gained almost everything it lost during the break-down, so the current resistance is at $31. Many sellers will probably wait there, but if the silver manages to overcome this resistance, it might jump to $33. Otherwise, it might turn over and slide to $29 or even below.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Daily Analysis - Forex Currency Trading News 2012-01-18

The US stock market opened the trading week with a bullish momentum, in spite the weakness of the financial sector, which caused by Citigroup's reports that missed analysts' expectations. The stock fell 8% by the end of the day.

The S&P 500 rose tried to break-through the resistance of the round number 1300 points but turned over after a false-break. However, if today's reports of Goldman Sachs bit Wall Street estimations, the S&P might try to break-through 1300 points again.

GBP/USD

The risings in Wall Street helped the GBP to rise until the middle of the day but eventually it resumed falling against the USD on the second half of the day. Today is published the Claimant Count Change data, which will give indication regarding the employment situation in Britain.

Last Friday, we demonstrated how dangerous it was to try opening a short-position under the support of 1.527. The pair made a false-break and started correcting up almost 150 pips, which probably stressed many armatures that had to close their losing positions.  The recent candlesticks have up-tails, which indicated that a bearish reversal might occur around these levels. Therefore, a break-down of 1.53 might be a second attempt of breaking down the daily low, on the way to 1.50.

EUR/NZD

The pair EUR/USD reached the lower boundary of the channel that we analyzed on the weekly analysis and it made the expected correction there. However, the NZD keeps strengthening against the USD and therefore the pair EUR/NZD remains in the downtrend.

The pair is obviously oversold and it might make an aggressive short-squeeze, if it breaks-through 1.60. However, the Kiwi is in a middle of a powerful momentum against most of the currencies, so the pair might break the support of 1.59 and fall to 1.57 or even below that.

NZD/JPY

This pair's daily chart reminds the daily chart of the NZD/USD. The reason for this is the fact that the JPY is stamping against the USD and the NZD is strengthening against it. The outcome is a very similar daily chart of the NZD/JPY and the NZD/USD, which will continue to remain similar until the Yen makes any significant movement.

The pair broker through the bullish pattern of the "cup & handle" at 61.0 and it is heading towards the 200 SMA at 63.0. The 20 EMA crossed above the 50 EMA, which is a strong bullish signal for the NZD against the JPY.

Today is published the important data of the CPI in New Zealand, which might affect the NZD's pairs during the day.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Weekly EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis January 16-20, 2012

The EUR/USD fluctuated heavily to the end of last week after gains across the week on eased woes that seemingly ran out of steam to the end of the week after renewed warnings from rating agencies for imminent downgrades.

The euro was attempting to hold the gains this week and the sentiment started to improve with jitters easing over the outlook after successful debt auctions last week and a steady policy from the ECB with no clear reference for more easing alongside assurances from Draghi that the liquidity measures and helping markets with tentative signs of stability.
Nevertheless, all the hopes came to halt with the end of the week with rating agencies again raising the heat. Already throughout the week comments from Fitch were generally targeting the risk that Italy faces and the likely rating cut and that was reiterated by S&P on Friday that sent markets frantically lower and also the euro.
This week the weak data flow from the euro area will leave the focus on the debt crisis with more auctions and eyes on rating agencies, especially after Fitch earlier said that the review might be concluded around January 15 and with S&P’s warning investors will remain sensitive to any comments and eyes the auctions closely with Spain, France, Portugal and Greece heading to the market.
From the U.S. front heavy data is awaited yet generally we expect good industrial and housing data and if the sentiment remains fragile and good figures are provided from the U.S. the attempts for the euro to stabilize last week will be dethroned and the bearishness will take hold once again assuring that it was only false attempts as unless the euro stabilizes this week higher then we can surely say the bearishness is back.
The release of the data this week will be as follows:
Monday January 16:
Both economies do not have fundamentals queued for release and the movement will be based on the market sentiment.
Auctions:
10:00 GMT Slovakia sells bills
10:30 GMT Netherlands sell bills
14:00 GMT France to sells bills
Tuesday January 17:
The euro area will start the data at 10:00 GMT with the December inflation figures, where the CPI index is expected with 0.4% rise on the month after 0.1% gain and on the year to confirm the flash estimate and fall to 2.8% from 3.0% while core CPI inflation to hold at 1.6%.
At the same time we have the ZEW Economic Sentiment for January to see if there is any improvement from December’s -54.1.
Germany will also release the ZEW Survey for January at 10:00 GMT as the Current Situation index is expected to fall to 24.5 from 26.8 while the Economic Sentiment Index is expected to improve to -49.8 from -53.8.
As for the United States, the day will start at 13:30 with the January Empire Manufacturing index which is expected with improvement to 10.50 from 9.53.
Auctions:
09:30 GMT Spain sells bills
10:00 GMT Greece sells bills
10:30 GMT Belgium sells bills
Wednesday January 18:
The euro area Construction Output for November is due at 10:00 GMT after it dropped 1.4% in October and on the year was down 2.8%.
As for the United States a busy day starts at 13:30 GMT with the Producer Price Index for December where it is expected to ease on the month to 0.1% after 0.3% and on the year expected at 5.1% from 5.7%; excluding food and energy the index is expected steady at 0.1% and on the year to slow to 2.8% after 2.9%.
At 14:00 GMT the TIC flows for November are due after the total Net TIC Flows in October declined in October with total selling of $48.8 billion.
At 14:15 GMT the December Industrial Production index is expected with 0.5% rebound from the previous month’s 0.2% drop and capacity utilization to tick higher to 78.1% from 77.8%.
Auctions:
10:15 GMT Germany sells bills
10:30 GMT Portugal sells bills
10:30 GMT Belgium sells bills
Thursday January 19:
The ECB will release the monthly report for January at 09:00 GMT. At the same time we have the Current Account for November which is likely to improve from the previous recorded 7.5 billion euro deficit in October after the reported huge trade surplus on the back of exports gains.
The U.S. economy will release initial jobless claims for the week ended Dec. 24 and continuing claims for the week ended Dec. 16, where they will be available at 13:30 GMT. At 14:45 GMT,Chicagopurchasing manger is estimated to retreat to 60.2 in Dec. from the previous 62.6. 15 minutes later, pending home sales for Nov. will signal 1.8% advance compared with the preceding 10.4% rise.
The U.S. will start the data at 13:30 GMT with the Inflation Report. The CPI index is expected with 0.1% rise on the month after holding unchanged the previous month and on the year to slow to 3.1% after 3.4%. Excluding food and energy the index is expected with 0.1% rise on the month after 0.2% gain and on the year to hold at 2.2%.
December Housing Starts index is also due the same time and expected flat at 685,000 while Building Permits are expected with 0.7% drop to 675,000 from 681,000.
As for the Jobless Claims for the week ending in January 14 it is also due at 13:30 GMT as usual after last week they rose 24,000 to 399,000 last week.
As for the Philadelphia Fed Index for January the index is due 15:00 GMT and expected to improve slightly to 11.0 from 10.3.
Auctions:
09:30 GMT Spain sells bills
Friday January 20:
Germany is due to release the Producer Price Index report for December at 07:00 GMT which is expected to hold at 0.1% rise on the month and on the year ease to 4.6% from 5.2%.
The United States is set to end the week with the Existing Home Sales for the month of December at 13:00 GMT where they are expected to extend the gain with 5.2% to 4.65 million from 4.42 million.

Forex Daily Analysis - Forex Currency Trading News 2012-01-13

  Wall Street continued the positive momentum yesterday, in spite the disappointing continuing jobless claims data that showed a growth of 7% in the unemployment.

The ECB kept the European interest rate at 1.0% and the Euro rose after the announcement, thought the ECB press conference did not put a new light regarding the debt problem of the PIIGS countries.

USD/JPY

The USD has been strengthening against some of the major currencies since the beginning of the year, but the Japanese Yen was not impressed by that.  Last week, when the pair traded around the support of 76.5, we estimated that it would not break-down and would correct up. The USD did correct against the Yen as we estimated, but now the price is close to the support again.

The bearish pattern of the "head & shoulders" appears on the daily chart and a break-down of the support might take the Yen to the historical level of 75.5. However, even if the JPY eventually breaks-down, the central bank of the Japan might interfere in case the price slides under 76.0 (or even sooner), so any trade-idea on this direction has to consider this option.

AUD/USD

As we estimated, the simultaneous pressure of both buyers and sellers on the pair caused the price to change its direction several times in a short period. The level of 1.02 is still the pivot level of the triangle pattern, and the price goes back to this level each time it touches one of the triangle's edges. Yesterday, the Aussie tried to break-out the upper hedge but left the tail above and slid under the edge right after the break-out. This does not mean that the attempt for rising has failed and if the Aussie rises above yesterday's high and above the 200 SMA at 1.04-1.0410, it might signal that the buyers won the battle against the sellers and the price might continue to 1.07.

NZD/USD

Unlike the Aussie, the Kiwi has already broken-out the triangle pattern on the daily chart. Before the break-up occurred, we mentioned few elements that suggested that the NZD was about to break-up. The most powerful signal that we analyzed was the fact that the pair started the "higher-lows" pattern, which is an important technical sign when you look for a bullish trend. The pair is approaching the target we set at the 200 SMA and it might correct down from this level. However, a break-up of the 200 SMA might launch the price to the next resistance at 0.825.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

USD/JPY Intraday Technical Level For January 12nd / 2012

TODAY  TECHNICAL  LEVEL :

Resistance. 3 : 77.25.
Resistance. 2 : 77.10.
Resistance. 1 : 76.95.
Support. 1 : 76.76.
Support. 2 : 76.61.
Support. 3 : 76.46.

DESCRIPTION :

Please note for the levels of support. 3 (76.46) and Resistance. 3 (77.25), generally when a level is touched, the USD/JPY will turn around the opposite direction from the previous minimum of 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are managed on a breakout over 50 pips then it would be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Level For January 12nd / 2012

TODAY  TECHNICAL  LEVEL :

Breakout BUY Level : 1.2775.
Strong Resistance : 1.2767.
Original Resistance : 1.2755.
Inner Sell Area : 1.2743.
Target Inner Area : 1.2713.
Inner Buy Area : 1.2683.
Original Support : 1.2671.
Strong Support : 1.2659.
Breakout SELL Level : 1.2651.

DESCRIPTION :

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.2671 and 1.2755 is accompanied by a strong support at 1.2659 and 1.2767 for the strong resistance; If today the EUR/USD can break out and close below the 1.2651 level then this indicates considerable Bearish strength, while if the EUR/USD today can break out and close above the 1.2775 level then this indicates considerable Bullish strength. Alternatively you can trade in a way to open BUY position at the level of 1.2683 and 1.2743 for SELL position in which case both targets are located at the 1.2713 level.

FOREX Daily Analysis 2012-01-12

The investors are losing their faith in the major European currencies, since they buy the USD in spite the fact that the stock markets keep rising. The correlation between the USD and the stock is usually negative, but these days the USD is strengthening no matter what the stocks do.
Wall Street closed on the mixed territory yesterday but the main indices did not make a significant change, and it seems that the investors are waiting for the large companies to reveal their results for the 4^th quarter of 2011.
EUR/USD
The Euro keeps loosing points against the USD day after day. Every time the Euro shows signs for a possible correction, a red candlestick arrives and cut out the Euro's plan. The sellers has an absolute control of the trading in this pair and it looks like that Merkel & Sarkozy's plans for saving the Eurozone, do not impress the investors that continue selling the Euro.
The pair has been moving in an accurate channel since the current bearish session began on November 2011. The price approached the lower boundary of the channel and might correct upwards, but additional break-down might take the Euro down to 1.23.
Today is published the European bid rate, which expected to remain unchanged (1%). The ECB press conference will be on the center and Trichet's outlook regarding 2012 will influence on the traders. Be careful of trading during the announcement.

GBP/USD
Yesterday we mentioned that the pair has been moving in a lower-high pattern, but it showed signaled that it was about to correct up. The correction did not occur and the GBP slid aggressively to the support of 1.53, which was the target we set in case the pair would not make the up-correction.
The round number of 1.53 might be a strong support for the GBP, but if it continues the bearish momentum, it can easily slide under it and fall to 1.50. The MPC rate statement later today, will determine the direction of the GBP for the rest of the day.

GBP/JPY
The Yen is showing an impressive strength against the USD these days and the pair USD/JPY has been resting in the recent three-days, though things looks positive for the Japanese currency.
The strength of the JPY is emphasized against the weakness of the GBP and therefore the pair GBP/JPY is crashing. In fact, we suggested a trade-idea for a short position when the price was 121.5-122, which gained over 350 pips. Now, the price is moving towards 117.0 and a break-down there might slide to 115.0

Risk Disclosure
Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.
You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

FOREX Daily Analysis 2012-01-11

Another green day was closed in Wall Street as S&P 500 is close to break-through the resistance of 1300 points. Dow-Jones has already broke-through an important resistance in the daily chart at 12,300 points and it is heading to 12,800.

GBP/USD

The pound has been moving in a bearish pattern in the recent six weeks. Each time it touches the resistance of the downtrend, it falls downwards to 1.535-1.54. In addition, each high that it sets when it reaches the resistance is lower than the previous one. The outcome is the bearish pattern of "lower-highs" which attracts many short positions players to the market.

However, there might be a signal that indicate that the GBP is about to make an aggressive correction. This signal is the fact that last week's low is higher than the previous one, and that is the first signal you look for when you try to estimate whether a bearish session is over. Stochastic low levels are also supporting the estimation that the GBP is about to correct, and if it does, it might jump to the resistance of the downtrend again to 1.565.

Nevertheless, the US stock market might correct down any day, and since the USD has a negative correlation with the stocks, it might get stronger against the GBP and the pair might slide under 1.53.

USD/CAD

The pair is about to reach the point in which a winner will be determined in the battle between the buyers and the sellers. The current pattern is an accurate triangle, which its pivot level is around 1.02. Eventually, the pressure from below of the buyers will meet the pressure from above of the sellers around the pivot level, and the price will either break-up or break-down one of the triangle's edges. A break-up might launch the price to 1.045-1.05, and a break-down might slide it to 1.0.

CAD/JPY

The JPY is showing signs that it is about to break-down the support of 76.5 against the USD, and this might cause a stronger bullish movement of the Yen towards 75.5. Because of the fact that both CAD and JPY are strengthening against the USD these days, the pair CAD/JPY has been stamping since the beginning of December between 75.0 and 76.5. The pair is traded around the lower boundary of this channel and if it keeps the current pattern, it might rise to 76.5. A break-down here will indicate that the JPY is strengthening and the price might fall to 73.0-73.5.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

Forex Daily Analysis 2012-01-10

The US stock market opened the trading week on the green territory and it looks like the indices are getting prepared to another strong break-up. However, they might correct before that break-up occurs, since they reached strong resisting areas and the directional indicators shows an overbuying situation.

The results season for the 4^th quarter started yesterday with the reports of the aluminum producer Alcoa (AA). The earning seasons tend to be volatile especially in days where important firms report, and it will probably affect the forex market in the next few weeks.

USD/CHF

Last week we estimated that the support of 0.93 was strong enough and the USD would rise from this level. We brought-up the trade-idea of opening a long positing in case the price crosses above 0.945. This trade worked as we expected and the pair went up above the target we set at 0.955.

The most important thing here is to learn how to implement the idea of getting in the market before everybody does, and get out when everybody gets in. In this case, the idea was to enter the market before the amateurs would enter above the pick at 0.955. The pair made a false-break and started correcting right after the break-out of 0.955. Now, all of the traders that entered in this level are stressed and losing money, whereas those who opened the position in the reversal point at 0.945 are much relaxed and already took profits. This show how dangerous is to enter the market in extreme levels, and how important is to spot the reversing levels as we did in this trade idea.

EUR/CHF

The Euro finally made the expected correction against the USD and it might start an aggressive short-squeeze if it crosses above yesterday's high. The CHF is weakening against the USD but no doubt, the investors would prefer it against the EUR unless they were not afraid of the Swiss central bank.

However, there are some signals on the pair's daily chart that suggest that the CHF might try to break-down. The most significant signal is the fact that the 20 EMA crossed below the 50 EMA, which means that the prices are getting lower. The pair also broke the support of the 200 SMA around 1.214 and it reached the support of 1.21. A break-up of 1.21 might lead to another intervention by the SNB at 1.20, but if the central bank does not keep its promise to show-up at 1.20, the CHF might slide even under this support as well.

AUD/USD

The resistance of the 200 SMA on the daily chart was strong as we estimated last week. The Aussie slide down to 1.045 after hitting the 200 SMA and yesterday's long-tail candlestick might indicate that a bullish reversal might occur around the current levels. A break-up of yesterday's high will support this pattern, but pay attention to stochastic levels, which indicate that the Aussie is overbought and the correction might not been over yet.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

USD/JPY Intraday Technical Level For January 9th / 2012

TODAY  TECHNICAL  LEVEL :

Resistance. 3 : 77.35.
Resistance. 2 : 77.20.
Resistance. 1 : 77.04.
Support. 1 : 76.86.
Support. 2 : 76.70.
Support. 3 : 76.55.

DESCRIPTION :

Please note for the levels of support. 3 (76.55) and Resistance. 3 (77.35), generally when a level is touched, the USD/JPY will turn around the opposite direction from the previous minimum of 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are managed on a breakout over 50 pips then it would be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Level For January 9th / 2012

TODAY  TECHNICAL  LEVEL :

Breakout BUY Level : 1.2749.
Strong Resistance : 1.2741.
Original Resistance : 1.2730.
Inner Sell Area : 1.2718.
Target Inner Area : 1.2688.
Inner Buy Area : 1.2658.
Original Support : 1.2646.
Strong Support : 1.2634.
Breakout SELL Level : 1.2629.

DESCRIPTION :

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.2646 and 1.2730 is accompanied by a strong support at 1.2634 and 1.2741 for the strong resistance; If today the EUR/USD can break out and close below the 1.2629 level then this indicates considerable Bearish strength, while if the EUR/USD today can break out and close above the 1.2749 level then this indicates considerable Bullish strength. Alternatively you can trade in a way to open BUY position at the level of 1.2658 and 1.2718 for SELL position in which case both targets are located at the 1.2688 level.

EUR/USD: Weekly Technical Levels for January 9 - 13, 2012.

Weekly Technical Levels:

Tip (s):

R3 and S3 are good indication for the maximum range for extremely volatile days but can be exceeded occasionally.
Pivot lines work well in sideways markets as prices will most likely range between the R1 and S1 line.
In a strong trend, price will be low through a pivot point line and keep going.
If there is significant news to influence the market price may go straight through R1 or S1 and reach even R2 & R3 or S2 & S3.

Time Frame: H1.

Drag your Fibonacci retracement levels from the lower to the higher of the last week from 2^nd of January to 6^th of January, 2011 in order to determine low and high price.

Average = (Higher - Lower) / 2
Average = 1.2887

• Range was: 381 pips.
• The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is: 1.2887.
• 1.32 will be formed a strong resistance.
• 1.25 will be formed a strong support.
• Volatility is 409.00 so the market has called for a high volatile.
• It should be noted that the price has still been trapped between 1.26 and 1.32.

Observation (s):

• If the strength of the trend for pair is an uptrend, then the strength of the currency: EUR is an uptrend and USD is a downtrend.
• Most of traders use the Fibonacci retracement to determine accurate psychology level of support and resistance.
  
• Volatility Formulas: Variation = Average * (Higher - Lower).

EUR/JPY: Weekly Technical Levels for January 9 - 13, 2012.

Weekly Technical Levels:

Tip (s):

R3 and S3 are good indication for the maximum range for extremely volatile days but can be exceeded occasionally.
Pivot lines work well in sideways markets as prices will most likely range between the R1 and S1 line.
In a strong trend, price will be low through a pivot point line and keep going.
If there is significant news to influence the market price may go straight through R1 or S1 and reach even R2 & R3 or S2 & S3.

Time Frame: H1.

Drag your Fibonacci retracement levels from the lower to the higher of the last week (It has 120 candles, as you know each candle is formed in 1 hour on H1 chart, then: (120 candles * 1 hour) / 24 hours = 5 days from 2^nd of December to 6^th of December, 2012) in order to determine low and high price.
Average = (Higher - Lower) / 2
Average = 99.27

• Range was: 281 pips.
• The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is: 99.27.
• 102.42 will be formed a strong resistance.
• 95.15 will be formed a strong support.
• Volatility is 2789.62 so the market has called for a high volatile.
• It should be noted that the price has still been trapped between 100.70 and 97.10. Aswell the weekly pivot point equal the 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels.
  

Observation (s):

• If the strength of the trend for pair is an uptrend, then the strength of the currency: EUR is an uptrend and JPY is a downtrend.
• Most of traders use the Fibonacci retracement to determine accurate psychology level of support and resistance.
  
• Volatility Formulas: Variation = Average * (Higher - Lower).

Daily Analysis 2012-01-09

The US stock market opened the year on the green territory as the major indices rose 1.7% during the week. The S&P 500 is approaching the resistance at 1300 points and NASDAQ is heading towards 2400 points. A break-up of these important resistances might help the indices to rise up to the 52-weeks highs.

The most important and encouraging event during last week was the Non-farm payroll change data that showed an increase of 200K jobs in the US economy, whereas the expectations were an increase of 152K new jobs. In addition, the unemployment rate was down by 0.2% to 8.5%. This surprising news regarding the American unemployment status launched the stock markets and supported the US dollar against most of the currencies.

EUR/USD

Unlike the US, the news from Europe is still bad. Hungary's rank was downgraded to junk due to the policy of its prime minister. Other countries are still struggling with their huge debts and the EUR keeps loosing points.  All of these political crises are pulling the Euro down and the investors are running away from this currency, but the ECB press conference on Thursday will try to change that. The minimum bid rate is expected to remain unchanged.

 

On the technical aspect, the EUR broke down the support at 1.285, which we analyzed last week, and it is sliding downwards to 1.25. Pay attention to the stochastic oscillator, which indicates that the EUR is oversold and might correct-up any day.

 

GBP/USD

The 50 EMA has been following the pair for several weeks and it plays the role of a resistance. Each time the pair touched the 50 EMA it immediately turned over and started a bearish session. So did happen on Tuesday when the pair hit the resistance at 1.566 and slid down to the support of 1.54. The next support is at 1.53 and a break-down there might take the pound down to the psychological number 1.50.

The official bank rate will be published this Thursday, 45 minutes before the European bid rate is published. There are not any surprises expected regarding the interest level and therefore the MPC rate statement will be in the center.

USD/JPY

The pair reached the support at 76.5 and started correcting from this point, as we anticipated on the previous weekly analysis. Two signals suggest that the Yen might keep strengthening. First, the 20 EMA crossed below the 50 EMA, and second, Friday's candlestick ended-up red with a tail upwards. If the price slides under Friday's low, the pair will try to break-down the support at 76.5 again, and if it succeeds, it might fall to 75.5.

However, as we mentioned before, the USD is in a bullish momentum so it might try to climb to 78.0. In order to do that, it will have to break-through Friday's high at 78.3.0

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

FOREX Daily Analysis 2012-01-06

The ADP non-farm payroll data beat the estimations yesterday and lifted the stock markets. The number of continuing jobless claims was less than analysts' expectations and this contributed to the positive atmosphere in Wall Street. Nevertheless, the investors have been waiting the whole week for the official Non-farm payroll data that is published today. The NFP is the most important indicator regarding the US economy, and has the highest impact on all of the financial markets around the globe.

The reason for this is that this information tells the story about the most important thing regarding  the US economy these days- the unemployment status. A growth in the NFP data will support the assumption that the US economy has started to pull itself out of the deep recession. However, disappointing results might cause an aggressive reaction by the financial markets and crash them down.

EUR/USD

The better than expected economic data helped the USD to continue its bullish momentum. The investors, who see the news regarding the ADP NFP change, figure that the US economy is in a better condition than many other developed countries and therefore the USD made an impressive movement yesterday, in spite of the rising of the stocks.

The first week of 2012 tells us that the investors do not see a bright future for the European economy and they sale Euros in every opportunity they get. The pair successfully broke-down the psychological support of 1.30 and it is now heading towards 1.25. If the EUR keeps losing points so fast, we might see it at 1.15 within just few months.

GOLD

The metals have started 2012 with a bullish momentum but it is hard to tell in this point if this can mean anything about the trends of the year. The precious metals closed 2011 with sharp declines, which we knew how to take profits of, and therefore the recent up-correction was expected in the technical point of view.

 The gold reached the 200 SMA, which was the target we set for the current correction, and it might continue rising towards $1650-$1700 if the positive atmosphere in the stock markets remains.  Likewise, the 200 SMA might be a strong resistance that will force the gold to reverse down from this point.

SILVER

The silver is trying to retest the break-down area of $30, which it broke three weeks ago. The metal made the double-bottom pattern on the support of $26, but this bullish pattern does not necessary mean that the silver is going to continue rising. A break-up of the resistance at $30 might cause a short-squeeze that can take the price up to $31.5, but stochastic levels indicate that the current bullish correction is about to over, so a bearish reversal is possible here.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above