Daily Analysis 2012-08-13

EUR/USD

Many traders expected the Euro to rise on the background of the bullish momentum in the stock markets. However, investors decided to take advantage of the recent rising in order to sell the Euro. The currency reached a strong support at 1.24 and despite the break up of the US indices, the Euro failed in breaking through. Stochastic levels are still high, which means that the currency might continue falling towards 1.217-1.22. Nevertheless, the tails that extend from Friday's candlestick indicates for a possible bullish reversal.  The Euro gets support at 1.2240 and if it crosses above Friday's high, it might show another attempt of breaking through 1.24.

GBP/USD

As we estimated on the previous weekly analysis, the pound continued to be traded between the support at 1.545 and the resistance at 1.57. The currency narrowed the range last week, as a strong support appeared around 1.5550. The pound close on the resistance at 1.57 as it looks ready to break through. If it succeeds, the pound might jump upwards to 1.59. However, the 200 SMA waits just above 1.57 and it might be a tough obstacle for the pound. In case of a failure, the currency might slide to the channel's support at 1.545. Investors will look forwards to Wednesday, as the MPC meeting minutes will be revealed.

USD/JPY

This pair keeps stamping, as it could not break through neither the resistance at 78.85 or the support at 78.0.  The main reason for this unclear trend is the contradicting forces of each currency, in which the USD is traded against the general trend. Trading the pair when it has unclear direction is extremely dangerous. Therefore, one should wait until the pair breaks up or breaks down. According to the bearish trend that appears on the daily chart, the Yen is likely to break down. If it does, we might see it around 77.0.

Daily Analysis 2012-07-31

Wall Street opened the trading week on the red territory as NASDAQ shed 0.41%. Dow Jones and S&P 500 lost respectively 0.02% and 0.05% and this indicates for a slight correction to last week's rally. Investors will focus today on consumer confidence data as well on personal spending and personal income data.

EUR/JPY

The Euro is clearly overbought after the sharp rising last week. The currency made a bearish candlestick in the daily chart of EUR/USD and if it slides under yesterday's low, it will ibe an indication for a possible bearish reversal. The Yen, on the other hand, strengthened against the USD yesterday and slid under the important support at 78.25. Therefore, the pair EUR/JPY made a bearish reversal as well. The Euro got the resistance of the 20 EMA on Friday and as a result, a red candlestick appeared in the daily chart. The bullish correction helped the Euro to correct approximately 50% of the recent bearish session, which means that the pair reached proper levels for a bearish reversing. In order to resume strengthening against the Euro, the Japanese Yen will have to break down and close under yesterday's low. If it succeeds, it might strengthen to the level of 94.0 against the Euro.

AUD/JPY

The Australian dollar is currently in a middle of a strong bullish movement against the USD. After it got a strong support at 1.025, the currency rose nearly 250 pips against the USD. The Aussie is now facing the resistance at 1.05 and if it successfully breaks through, it might jump towards 1.07.

The AUD is getting stronger against most of the currencies, including the JPY. Despite the fact that the JPY is gaining power against the USD, the AUD managed to force a break up pattern on the pair's daily chart. The level of 82.35 is resisting the pair and a strong break up might trigger many automatic orders that can lift the pair towards 84.75.

AUD/NZD

We analyzed the pair a week ago and mentioned that it reached a strong resistance in the daily chart. As we expected, stochastic high levels prevented additional break up and the pair corrected down to the support of the 200 SMA. Stochastic levels still indicate for overbuying situation, which means that the bearish correction might continue. If the NZD break down the current support, the pair might fall to 1.285. However, a break up of the 3-days high at 1.30 might push the pair above the resistance at 1.3050.

Daily Analysis 2012-07-30

The financial markets received a strong incentive From the ECB press conference that changed the momentums in both Forex and stock markets. On the beginning of last week it seemed that the Euro was about to slide under 1.20 and that the S&P was going to fall to 1300 points. This was the outcome of high level of concerns regarding the Spanish debt problem. However, everything changed on Thursday as Mario Draghi impressively defended the Eurozone and said that nothing could break it down. Draghi's patriotic speech replaced the pessimism that controlled the markets with optimism and euphoria.

No one can anticipate the Eurozone's future and there is a big question mark above the ability of the ECB to pull the EU countries out of the mass. Yet, it looks like the stock markets resumed trading in uptrend mode. The S&P 500 broke through the recent pick at 1380 points and its next target is the annual high at 1422 points. Nevertheless, the results season is not over yet and may influence the markets during the following week.

EUR/USD

The Euro made first sign for a bullish correction on Wednesday and we estimated then that it would rise towards 1.2325. The currency made the expected short-squeeze and got the resistance we anticipated. The Euro rose 50% of the recent decline session and it might continue towards 1.25 if it keeps the current momentum. However, the general trend here is still bearish and investor will not rush to transfer their investments to the Euro due to the European debt problems. Therefore, this might be an opportunity to sell the Euro. If the currency closes under Friday's low, it might build the bearish reversal pattern and slide downwards to 1.2150.

The markets will focus on two main events during Thursday and Friday. On Thursday, the ECB will publish the interest rate that is expected to remain at 0.75%. On the day after, the important indicator of the Non-Farm payroll change will be published in the US.

GBP/USD

The pound acted exactly as we estimated on the previous weekly analysis. It broke the support at 1.56, slide to the support at 1.5450 and pulled back to the 200 SMA at 1.5730. According to the current pattern, the pound might turnover and slide towards the support at 1.5450. However, it seems that the pound has intentions to continue the bullish momentum. Therefore, if it manages to break through the resistance of the 200 SMA, it might surge upwards to 1.575. The interest rate will be published on Thursday by the central bank of England, 45 minutes ahead the European bid rate announcement.

USD/JPY

Draghi's speech on Thursday helped most of the major currencies to rise against the USD. However, since the Yen had a negative correlation with the US stock markets, it weakened against the American dollar. The JPY failed in breaking down the support at 78.25 and the USD will probably continue strengthening against the JPY if Wall Street continues up. A possible target for a bullish movement may be the resistance of the 200 SMA a t 79.0. The weakening of the JPY and the strengthening of the other major currencies would make it easier to trade JPY pairs (against Yen's direction). A target for a break down session might be at 77.20.

Forex Daily Analysis 2012-07-05

The holiday in the US influenced the currencies market as the low liquidity blocked some the major currencies' momentum against the USD that took advantage of the situation in order to correct some of the recent declines. Most of the traders in the US extend their vacation to the weekend and will resume to the markets just next week, and this might influence the markets as well. However, the following trading days are full with important indicators that might shakeout the markets.

EUR/USD

Currencies are changing momentums almost every several hours these days, mainly because of the low volatility. Therefore, promising patterns might lead to false-breaks and cause quick losses. This means that the technical analysis could be less accurate than usual and therefore necessary adjustments have to be made. The Euro reached a new weekly low yesterday, as the descending triangle pattern was built above the support at 1.24. A break-down of this pattern will probably take the Euro down to the annual low at 1.2287. The reason for this bearish momentum could be the markets' expectations for a lower interest rate announcement today by the European central bank. However, the ECB press conference might have a positive influence on the Euro if the investors get positive signals from the central bank. Either way, the market tend to be extremely volatile during such significant announcements and trading during the moments of the declaration includes high risk.

GBP/USD

The pound fell under Monday's low and triggered many selling orders that pulled it 100 pips down. The currency got the resistance of the downtrend line and created a triangle pattern in the daily chart. This triangle is neither descending nor ascending, which means that there is a strong conflict between the buyers and the sellers. In such cases, the technical trader has to get prepared for both scenarios of break-up and break-down. According to the current momentum, it looks like the pound is going to slide to the support of the uptrend line at 1.5520, as a strong break-down of this support might pull it down to 1.54. Nevertheless, the pound might continue moving between the triangle's edges until it breaks on of them. The official bank rate is published today in Britain, 45 minutes before the European, as a positive reaction by the investors might launch the pound towards the 200 SMA at 1.5750.

OIL

The price of the crude oil reached a psychological of $80 support last week and started correcting up since then. The sanctions against Iran's oil contributed to the speculations regarding the oil's prices and the traders took advantage of that. The oil rose 10% since last week and the weekly charts shows that the oil has risen over 20% on the last couple of times that it reached this support. This means that the current bullish correction might lift it up towards $100. However, if the oil makes the bearish reversal, successful break-down this time might pull it down to the level of $70.

Forex Daily Analysis 2012-03-16

Improving economic data supported the US stock markets that closed another green trading-day yesterday. Continuing jobless claims were 351K, lower than analysts' consensus of 354K claims. Philly manufacturing index, which indicates the activity of the manufacturing sector, was higher than expectations as well. Today are published the core CPI M/M & consumer sentiment.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar reached the target we set for the break-down of the support at 1.06, which was the 200 SMA, around 1.04. As we estimated, the break-down of this level caused significant declines and the support appeared around the 200 SMA, which is an indicator that many investors use. The support occurred close to the 50% Fibonacci level, which means that a bullish reversal might start from this point. Stochastic oscillator levels are showing oversold situation, and this supports the possibility for a bullish reversal by the Aussie that might retest the break-down level at 1.06.

AUD/CAD
Most of the major currencies got stronger against the USD yesterday, but the CAD did not make a significant change against the American dollar. The pair USD/CAD is consolidating around 0.99 and it is not clear whether the bears or the bulls have the upper hand now.
The fact that the CAD is stamping versus the USD, helps the AUD to rise against it, after few weeks of heavy sales in the pair AUD/CAD. The pair blocked by the 200 SMA and if this support lasts, the AUD might correct up to 1.055-1.06 and even higher.

EUR/GBP
Both EUR & GBP are traded around strong supports against the USD. The EUR gets support at 1.30, might continue to 1.315-1.32, whereas the GBP has support at 1.565, and might rise to 1.58.
The pair has been moving through a narrow channel and we analyze it each time the pair touches one of the channel's boundaries. Two weeks ago, when the pair traded a little bit higher that 0.83, we brought up the trade idea of trying to take it up to 0.84 and the trade worked exactly as we planned. The pair is close to 0.83 again and if the current pattern remains, the pair will rise towards 0.84. However, a powerful movement of the GBP might cause a break-down of the support and take it down to 0.82.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

FOREX Daily Analysis 2012-03-08

As we estimated, the US stock market made the bullish correction to the declines from the beginning of the week, and those who expected to see a crashing of the stock got the exact opposite. Wall Street can easily slide to the bearish momentum again but the most important thing here to understand is that the general trend is still bullish, which means that those who missed the rally might buy stocks after the slightest correction.
EUR/USD
The next two days are full with important economic data as today is published the European interest rate, which expected to remain at 1.0% and the investors will look forward to the ECB press conference.
The risings in Wall Street helped the Euro that found a support at 1.31, and if the investors like what they hear from the ECB president, the currency might jump to the resistance at 1.325. However, a break-down of yesterday's low could take the pair under 1.30.

EUR/GBP
The pound failed in breaking through the 200 SMA on Tuesday and the sharp declines in Wall Street that day, pulled the pound down to 1.57. The British currency corrected yesterday and the MPC rate statement today will influence its direction today.
Both EUR & GBP are moving in the same trend versus the USD and therefore the pair EUR/GBP has been stamping in the last couple of months. The pair is approaching the resistance at 0.84, which it broke last month but fell under it few days after the break-up. According to this pattern, the pair supposed to rise to 0.84 and try to break it through again. However, if the pound gets extremely stronger and the pair breaks down the support at 0.83, it might slide towards 0.82.

USD/CAD
The pair reached the target we set at the psychological number 1.0 and the strengthening of the USD has stopped due to the bullish correction of the stocks. The interest rate is published today in Canada, 30 minutes after the ECB press conference begins and like the other interest rates that are published today the Canadian interest is expected to remain unchanged. If the USD continues strengthening against the CAD and overcomes the resistance at 1.0 then the price might reach 1.015. However, if the bearish reversal occurs, the price might fall back to 0.98 again.

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

 You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above